Prediction Skill of U.S. Flash Droughts in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Model Hindcasts

Abstract: Droughts that establish themselves over a short period of time (weeks to a few months), referred to as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict such droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially reduce their impacts. The sub-seasonal time scale at which flash droughts occur emphasizes the importance of producing forecasts at weekly or finer intervals that extend beyond the numerica…