{"id":312162,"date":"2017-05-08T09:30:01","date_gmt":"2017-05-08T13:30:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?guid=32d7eaa57e87b1ae4a5baa8489c640d3"},"modified":"2017-05-08T09:30:01","modified_gmt":"2017-05-08T13:30:01","slug":"innovation-dilemma-suggests-that-better-models-are-not-always-better","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=312162","title":{"rendered":"Innovation dilemma suggests that &#8216;better&#8217; models are not always better"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(Phys.org)\u2014If you had to predict the probability of a catastrophic meteor striking the Earth, you would likely want the most accurate models on which to base your predictions. But a new paper shows that, because the most accurate models are generally more innovative and complex, they may suffer from a higher probability of error. Consequently, the most innovative and accurate models may not offer the best methods for making predictions, especially of rare, high-consequence events.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Phys.org)&mdash;If you had to predict the probability of a catastrophic meteor striking the Earth, you would likely want the most accurate models on which to base your predictions. But a new paper shows that, because the most accurate models are generally more innovative and complex, they may suffer from a higher probability of error. Consequently, the most innovative and accurate models may not offer the best methods for making predictions, especially of rare, high-consequence events.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":615444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-312162","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312162","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=312162"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312162\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":312163,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/312162\/revisions\/312163"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/615444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=312162"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=312162"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=312162"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}