{"id":562632,"date":"2018-12-26T09:07:18","date_gmt":"2018-12-26T13:07:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ntrs.nasa.gov\/search.jsp?R=20180008755"},"modified":"2018-12-26T09:07:18","modified_gmt":"2018-12-26T13:07:18","slug":"quantifying-the-uncertainties-in-an-ensemble-of-decadal-climate-predictions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=562632","title":{"rendered":"Quantifying the Uncertainties in an Ensemble of Decadal Climate Predictions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Abstract: Meaningful climate predictions should be accompanied by the corresponding uncertainty range. Common methods for estimating the uncertainty range are based on the spread of ensemble predictions. However, a simulation ensemble is not necessarily a proper sample of the real distribution of the climate, and therefore, the ensemble spread cannot be interpreted as the actual uncertainty. We propose a new method that links between the ensemble spread and the uncertainty without relying on any assump&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Abstract: Meaningful climate predictions should be accompanied by the corresponding uncertainty range. Common methods for estimating the uncertainty range are based on the spread of ensemble predictions. However, a simulation ensemble is not necessaril&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":60,"featured_media":615444,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-562632","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/60"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=562632"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562632\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":562633,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/562632\/revisions\/562633"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/615444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=562632"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=562632"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=562632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}