\n<\/p>\n
“ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 2310 UTC\/09 NOVEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE:<\/p>\n
“G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 11-12 Nov, with a
slight chance of G3 due to the anticipated arrival of a halo CME
first observed 09-Nov. Conditions are expected to ease to background
levels on 13-Nov.”<\/p>\n
A great, big geomagnetic storm on Sunday disrupted the second day of
ARRL CW Sweepstakes. Planetary A index for the day was 57, and the
highest 3-hour planetary K index readings were 6, 6, 7 and 6.33 from
1200-2100 UTC. This was triggered by a coronal mass ejection (CME).<\/p>\n
This reporting week, ending November 8, saw six new emerging sunspot
groups, one on each day, except November 6.<\/p>\n
Solar activity improved, with average daily sunspot number
increasing from 76.7 to 89.7. Average daily solar flux rose from
137.5 to 151.7.<\/p>\n
Geomagnetic activity increased. Average daily planetary A index
changed from 15.9 to 22.3 and middle latitude A index rose from 11.9
to 14.6.<\/p>\n
The most active days were Sunday and Monday when the planetary A
index was 57 and 40, respectively.<\/p>\n
Predicted solar flux is 140 on November 10-11, then 145, 130 and 135
on November 12-14, 130 on November 15-16, 123 and 120 on November
17-18, 125 on November 19-22, 130 on November 23-26, then 132, 134
and 134 on November 27-29, 136 on November 30 through December 2,
then 140 and 138 on December 3-4, 136 on December 5-6, then 138, 136
and 134 on December 7-9, 130 on December 10-12, then 125, 123 and
120 on December 13-15, and 125 on December 16-19.<\/p>\n
Predicted planetary A index is 10, 8, 8, 12 and 10 on November
10-14, then 5 on November 15-21, then 15, 10 and 15 on November
22-24, then 15, 20, 15 and 8 on November 25-28, then 5 on November
29 through December 5, then 12 and 8 on December 6-7, 5 on December
8-10, then 8, 10, and 8 on December 11-13, and 5 on December 14-18.<\/p>\n
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s
Ionosphere – November 9, 2023, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.<\/p>\n
“In agreement with the prediction, two CMEs probably hit the Earth
on 4 and 5 November in succession (at least the second one on 3
November, also in the northern hemisphere of the Sun, was a ‘full
halo CME’).<\/p>\n
“A G1 class geomagnetic storm was expected for the arrival of both
CMEs. The expectation was gradually changed to G2, but in fact its
intensity reached G3 (since 5 November 1743 UT, by K = 7).<\/p>\n
“A relatively recently described and still somewhat mysterious
phenomenon, referred to as ‘STEVE’ (Strong Thermal Emission Velocity
Enhancement), was also observed.<\/p>\n
“It looks like an aurora, but unlike the aurora, it can be detected
already in weaker storms (by K = 4 or more). They are caused by hot
(3000 deg C) jets of gas flowing through the Earth’s magnetosphere
at speeds in excess of 6 km\/s.<\/p>\n
“For the shortwave propagation, the positive phase of the
disturbance development (with increase of MUF and overall
improvement) was observed not only on November 4, but even better
after a pause on November 5. This was followed by a massive
deterioration, especially on 6 November, continuing to some extent
on 7 November. Although the influx of fast solar wind with enhanced
proton content continued, an increase in MUF followed with relative
improvement in shortwave propagation conditions as early as 8-9
November.”<\/p>\n
On Friday, November 3, W0IY wrote:<\/p>\n
“I was very pleased with great conditions to Europe and North Africa
Saturday October 28 at 1700 UTC on 10 meters SSB. Happily working
stations when I saw a spot for Vanuatu. Tuned to the freq and easily
worked him. Didn’t change the beam.<\/p>\n
“Sunday morning same conditions and there is a spot for Reunion
Island. 1 call.<\/p>\n
“Neither sounded like long path. Both strong signals in Cedar
Rapids, Iowa.<\/p>\n
“Just seems like odd propagation.”<\/p>\n
I ran some paths with W6ELprop software, and to Reunion from W0IY
the best time for 10 meters on this 10,000 mile path would be
1630-1800 UTC, with possible openings also from 1530-1900 UTC.<\/p>\n
An article on recent aurora:<\/p>\n
https:\/\/bit.ly\/467cs6d<\/p>\n
A solar eruption resembling a “Canyon of Fire”:<\/p>\n
https:\/\/bit.ly\/3sBIGZo<\/p>\n
Scientists discover new truth about the Sun’s structure:<\/p>\n
https:\/\/www.indy100.com\/science-tech\/the-sun-structure-new-discovery<\/p>\n
A new video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW.<\/p>\n