\n<\/p>\n
“GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING ISSUED AT 0132 UTC ON 15 DECEMBER 2023 BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.<\/p>\n
“Two predominately westward CMEs were observed on 14-Dec and
component arrivals are expected on 17-Dec.<\/p>\n
“INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED FOR 17 DECEMBER 2023.”<\/p>\n
Spaceweather.com issued this alert on Thursday:<\/p>\n
“MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: The Sun just unleashed the strongest
solar flare of Solar Cycle 25 (so far), an X2.8-class explosion from
unstable sunspot AR3514. The blast caused a deep shortwave radio
blackout over the Americas and may have hurled a fast CME toward
Earth.”<\/p>\n
Solar activity declined this week. Average daily sunspot numbers
dropped from 121.1 to 110.3, and average daily solar flux from 146.5
to 129.8.<\/p>\n
With such low geomagnetic activity, conditions were good for last
weekend’s ARRL 10 Meter Contest, although some wished for more
sunspots.<\/p>\n
Six new sunspot groups appeared this week. The first two on December
8, another two on December 11 and 12, and two more on December 13.<\/p>\n
Geomagnetic conditions were quieter, with planetary A index dropping
from 14.1 to 5.6, and middle latitude numbers from 7.3 to 4.6.<\/p>\n
Predicted solar flux shows some expected improvement, with values
peaking at 160 on December 20-22, and 155 on January 23.<\/p>\n
Predicted solar flux is 135 on December 15-16, then 145, 150 and 155
on December 17-19, 160 on December 20-22, but dropping back to 140
on December 23-24, 150 on December 25-26, then 155, 150 and 145 on
December 27-29, then 140 on December 30 through January 2, 2024, and
135 on January 3-5, then 130, 125, 120, 118, and 120 on January
6-10, 122 on January 11-12, then 124, 125, and 130 on January 13-15,
135 on January 16-18, 140 on January 19-20, and 150 on January
21-22.<\/p>\n
Predicted planetary A index is 18 and 22 on December 15-16, 12 on
December 17-18, then 18, 8, 8, 20 and 10 on December 19-23, 5 on
December 24-29, 8 on December 30-31, then 10 and 8 on January 1-2,
2024, 5 on January 3-6, 12 on January 7-9, 8 and 5 on January 10-11,
12 on January 12-13, then 15, 25, 8, 5, 20 and 10 on January 14-19,
and 5 for at least the following few days.<\/p>\n
“Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s
Ionosphere December 15-21, 2023 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:<\/p>\n
“Solar activity has been gradually decreasing over the last seven
days, broadly in line with the forecast.<\/p>\n
“Most of the flares came from the active region AR3514, which was
moving from the northeast to the northwest.<\/p>\n
“Eventually, most of the sunspots were in the northwest of the solar
disk, and as they gradually set over the next few days, solar
activity should continue to decrease.<\/p>\n
“While activity on the Sun’s receding half does not appear to be
great, there is definitely a larger active region beyond the Sun’s
northeastern limb. This observation is likely the basis for the
latest forecast from the U.S. Air Force, which predicts a rise in
solar flux initially to 160, and after a slight drop back above 150
around Christmas.<\/p>\n
“Shortwave propagation conditions, which have suffered particularly
in the Earth’s northern hemisphere from the decline in solar
activity, should improve.<\/p>\n
“But developments may be more complicated. Just as a CME originating
from the solar flare of 11 December with a peak at 2243 UT arrived
at Earth before midnight UTC on 13 December, triggered a geomagnetic
disturbance in the first hours UTC on 14 December and significantly
worsened propagation, we can expect something similar from the
stronger flare of 14 December with a peak at 0744 UTC. However,
subsequent geomagnetic disturbances should be no more intense than
G1.”<\/p>\n
Reader David Moore sent this article from “SpaceNews”:<\/p>\n
https:\/\/bit.ly\/46ZKDNF<\/p>\n
On Wednesday morning Spaceweather.com announced:<\/p>\n
“The best meteor shower of the year is expected to peak on December
13-14 with no Moon to spoil the show. Rural observers could see
hundreds of Geminid meteors and more than a few fireballs.”<\/p>\n
From Angel Santana, WP3GW in Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico:<\/p>\n
“The 10 meter contest in my view was pretty nice on average,
although did notice this:<\/p>\n
“During 0000 UTC on Saturday got always South America for about 3
hours before the band closed. Then before 1200 UTC got to work
VR2XAN which was a surprise as my antenna was pointing to Europe (he
said he was beaming the South Pole) and it’s been 10 years since I
worked Hong Kong for the first time.<\/p>\n
“But then, could not work a few Europeans, and the band likely
closed to them by 1500 UTC, and the US was pretty strong.<\/p>\n
“Then it closed at 2230 UTC, so SA predominated again. It repeated
for Sunday.<\/p>\n
“Also noted that there was a lot of fading as some stations
disappeared for a few seconds to a minute. And the SFI dropped to
130 which could have been a factor.<\/p>\n
“But for what I am happy is that I accumulated 600 points for the
VOTA event, and I delivered 35.”<\/p>\n
Did you know India has a solar observatory in space?\u00a0 Here is an
article from “The Times Of India”:<\/p>\n
https:\/\/bit.ly\/3GGecsH<\/p>\n
From WBZ news, a story about a Massive Solar Flare:<\/p>\n
https:\/\/bit.ly\/4anifba<\/p>\n
Bil Paul, KD6JUI wrote:<\/p>\n
“The solar flux wasn’t optimal for the ARRL 10-meter contest last
weekend, but it was good enough. There was a lot of activity on the
voice part of the band.<\/p>\n
“Operating from my kayak with 10 watts and a small homebrew loop, I
gathered 38 contest exchanges on Saturday and Sunday, around 3-1\/2
hours of operating in total.<\/p>\n
“On Saturday, South and Central America, and Caribbean stations were
coming in as well as the usual Canadian stations for
out-of-the-country exchanges. I managed to snap up one Brazilian
station for DX.<\/p>\n
“On Sunday, I heard Australian stations coming in, but couldn’t get
them to hear me. There were also more Brazilian stations plus a few
from Argentina.<\/p>\n
“I was operating around noontime. QSB was evident.”<\/p>\n
Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, put out a new video this week:<\/p>\n