A big, dead satellite is set to crash back to Earth sometime next week. The European Space Agency (ESA) satellite was a scientific Earth-monitoring mission called ERS-2. Because the agency has no way to control its reentry (what they call a \u201cnatural\u201d reentry), the window for when ERS-2 will hit Earth isn\u2019t precise. As we get closer to reentry, the window narrows, and ESA\u2019s latest prediction is a reentry at 00:24 UTC on Wednesday, February 21, 2024 (or 6:24 p.m. CST, Tuesday, February 20), with an error margin of plus or minus one and a half days. But ESA is frequently updating this time range, so check here for the latest.<\/p>\n During a press conference on February 13, ESA said:<\/p>\n We estimate that the largest fragment of the satellite that could reach the ground is 115\u00a0pounds\u00a0(52 kg).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n But it also said:<\/p>\n \nThe odds of a piece of satellite falling on someone\u2019s head is estimated at one in a billion.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n So, when you consider that 71% of Earth\u2019s surface is water, odds are likely that the satellite will make a big splash somewhere.<\/p>\n EarthSky lunar calendars are back in stock! And we\u2019re guaranteed to sell out, so get one while you can. Your support means the world to us and allows us to keep going. Purchase here.<\/p>\n ERS-2 is ESA\u2019s second European Remote Sensing satellite. Launched on April 21, 1995, the satellite had a 16-year career observing Earth until ESA retired it in 2011. In July and August of that year, the space agency directed the satellite in 66 maneuvers to assist with deorbit. The maneuvers used up the satellite\u2019s fuel in order to decrease its orbit and lessen its chance of hitting operational satellites. Lowering the satellite\u2019s orbit also ensured that the satellite would reenter within the next 15 years, instead of 100 to 200 years. By September 2011, all the fuel from ERS-2 drained. So now the spacecraft is inoperable.<\/p>\n Over the satellite\u2019s lifetime, ERS-2 collected data on polar ice, changing land surfaces, sea-level rise, warming oceans and atmospheric chemistry. It was also pressed into service during natural disasters in remote regions. ESA said ERS-2:<\/p>\n \u2026 returned a wealth of information that revolutionized our perspective of our planet and understanding of climate change. As well as leaving a remarkable legacy of data that still continue to advance science, this outstanding mission set the stage for many of today\u2019s satellites and ESA\u2019s position at the forefront of Earth observation.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n ERS-2 weighs approximately 5,057 pounds (2294 kg). ESA said that:<\/p>\n On average, an object of similar mass reenters Earth\u2019s atmosphere every week or two.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The space agency said that the satellite will begin to break up when it reaches about 50 miles (80 km) above the ground. Most of the fragments will burn up completely in Earth\u2019s atmosphere. But some pieces could reach Earth\u2019s surface. The risk to humans is minute. According to ESA:<\/p>\n The annual risk of an individual human being injured by space debris is under 1 in 100 billion.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n And what does the burning spacecraft do to our atmosphere? While ESA said:<\/p>\n \u2026 the short-term impact on the atmosphere due to the burn up of a single spacecraft is modest.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n But, as ESA said, an object this size reenters every week or two. And in October 2023, a team of scientists released a study that said:<\/p>\n \u2026 about 10% of the aerosol particles in the stratosphere contain aluminum and other metals that originated from the \u201cburn-up\u201d of satellites and rocket stages during reentry. Although direct health or environmental impacts at ground level are unlikely, these measurements have broad implications for the stratosphere and higher altitudes. With many more launches planned in the coming decades, metals from spacecraft reentry could induce changes in the stratospheric aerosol layer.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Meanwhile, stand by for more updates on the reentry of ERS-2.<\/p>\n Bottom line: ESA\u2019s satellite ERS-2 should crash into Earth between February 19 and 23, 2024. The dead satellite is on an uncontrolled, or \u201cnatural\u201d, reentry.<\/p>\n Via ESA<\/p>\n <\/div>\n![\"Dead](\"https:\/\/earthsky.org\/upl\/2024\/02\/ERS-2-ESA.jpg\")
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What is ERS-2?<\/h3>\n
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Reentry of a dead satellite<\/h3>\n
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