{"id":779436,"date":"2024-03-22T15:26:50","date_gmt":"2024-03-22T20:26:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=779436"},"modified":"2024-03-22T15:26:50","modified_gmt":"2024-03-22T20:26:50","slug":"starshot-not-get-a-reality-check-on-the-search-for-alien-civilizations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=779436","title":{"rendered":"Starshot &#8230; Not? Get a Reality Check on the Search for Alien Civilizations"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Fortunately, the real-world search for signs of extraterrestrial civilizations doesn\u2019t have to deal with an alien armada like the one that\u2019s on its way to Earth in\u00a0\u201c3 Body Problem,\u201d\u00a0the Netflix streaming series based on Chinese sci-fi author\u00a0Cixin Liu\u2019s award-winning novels. But the trajectory of the search can have almost as many twists and turns as a\u00a0curvature-drive trip\u00a0from the fictional San-Ti star system.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-spotify wp-block-embed-spotify wp-embed-aspect-21-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<p>\n<iframe title=\"Spotify Embed: Get a reality check on the search for aliens\" style=\"border-radius: 12px\" width=\"100%\" height=\"152\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"\" allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/1udYCnasCUtJJELL7wqYdP?utm_source=oembed\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span id=\"more-166254\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Take the\u00a0Breakthrough Initiatives, for example: Back in 2016, the effort\u2019s billionaire founder, Yuri Milner, teamed up with physicist Stephen Hawking to announce a\u00a0$100 million project to send a swarm of nanoprobes through the Alpha Centauri star system, powered by light sails. The concept, dubbed\u00a0Breakthrough Starshot, was similar to the space-sail swarm envisioned in Liu\u2019s books \u2014 but with the propulsion provided by powerful lasers rather than nuclear bombs.<\/p>\n<p>Today, the Breakthrough Initiatives is focusing on projects closer to home. In addition to the millions of dollars it\u2019s spending to support the search for radio or optical signals from distant planetary systems, it\u2019s working with partners on a miniaturized space telescope to identify planets around Alpha Centauri, a radio telescope that could someday be built on the far side of the moon, and a low-cost mission to look for traces of life within the clouds of Venus.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-thumbnail is-resized\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Pete Worden is the executive director of the Breakthrough Initiatives. (Credit: Breakthrough Initiatives)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Breakthrough Starshot, however, is on hold. \u201cThis looks to be quite feasible. However, it seems to be something that is still pretty, pretty expensive, and probably wouldn\u2019t be feasible until later in the century,\u201d says Pete Worden, executive director of the Breakthrough Initiatives. \u201cSo, we\u2019ve put that on hold for a period of time to try to look at, are there near-term applications of this technology, which there may be.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Worden provides a status report on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence \u2014 and sorts out science fact from science fiction \u2014 on the latest episode of the\u00a0Fiction Science podcast.<\/p>\n<p>\u201c3 Body Problem\u201d takes its name from a longstanding challenge in orbital mechanics: It\u2019s\u00a0devilishly difficult\u00a0to predict the gravitational interactions of three massive bodies in a system, except in some special cases. In the Netflix series, and in the books on which the series is based, a Chinese radio astronomer makes contact with an alien civilization that suffers repeated crises because its home world is in an unstable triple-star system.<\/p>\n<p>When the aliens learn of our existence, they set out on a 400-year mass migration to Earth \u2014 an onslaught that puts our own planet on edge. One of the key concepts in the book is the\u00a0Dark Forest Theory. That\u2019s the idea that civilizations shouldn\u2019t broadcast their existence to the rest of the galaxy, for fear that other denizens of the \u201cDark Forest\u201d will eventually come after them.<\/p>\n<p>Worden admits that the Dark Forest Theory has had an effect on the Breakthrough Initiatives\u2019 agenda. <\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe initially had a program called\u00a0Breakthrough Message. \u2026 Not that we were going to send anything, but we were going to think about it,\u201d he recalls. \u201cWe got a lot of resistance to even thinking about sending messages. Interestingly enough, one of the key skeptics of this was Professor Stephen Hawking. He thought it was a bad idea for exactly the Dark Forest reason. Conversely, the chairman of our advisory committee \u2014 Lord Martin Rees, the Astronomer Royal of the U.K. \u2014 has the opposite view. He doesn\u2019t think that\u2019s a big issue.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Worden\u2019s personal view is that we\u2019ve been sending out signs of our presence \u2014 ranging from radio transmissions to telltale pollutants in the atmosphere \u2014 for so long that \u201cit\u2019s probably too late to hide in the forest and be quiet.\u201d<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<p>\n<span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"3 Body Problem | Final Trailer | Netflix\" width=\"1110\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SdvzhCL7vIA?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/span>\n<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The Breakthrough Initiatives is counting on civilizations in other planetary systems to speak up, one way or the other. Starting in 2015,\u00a0Breakthrough Listen\u00a0has provided support for programs looking for radio signals or optical flashes that might have been transmitted by aliens. One signal in particular, known as\u00a0BLC1, got hearts beating faster in 2019 \u2014 but astronomers eventually\u00a0traced its origin to earthly radio interference\u00a0rather than Proxima Centauri.<\/p>\n<p>Another initiative, known as\u00a0Breakthrough Watch, is working with Australian astronomers on a space telescope that would monitor the motions of the three stars in the Alpha Centauri system, looking for ever-so-slight gravitational wobbles that could point to the presence of Earthlike planets a little more than 4 light-years from Earth. The telescope is called\u00a0TOLIMAN, which is the Arabic name for Alpha Centauri as well as an acronym for \u201cTelescope for Orbit Locus Interferometric Monitoring of our Astronomical Neighborhood.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Worden says launch is currently scheduled for the first half of 2025. \u201cWe\u2019re still negotiating on the launch vehicles, but it\u2019s most likely to be a piggyback mission, possibly on a SpaceX mission.\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p>For what it\u2019s worth, astronomers have already detected a\u00a0super-Earth that\u2019s orbiting Proxima Centauri\u00a0\u2014 and in 2021, a team supported by Breakthrough Watch reported seeing\u00a0tentative signs of a giant planet\u00a0around Alpha Centauri A.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, Worden is working with\u00a0CSIRO, the Australian government\u2019s science agency, on a different sort of telescope.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe think we can put a radio telescope for on the order of $100 million\u00a0on the far side of the moon\u00a0that looks for transients across the broad spectrum, mostly at higher frequencies,\u201d he says. \u201cThat\u2019s a good place, because right now it\u2019s blocked from interference from the Earth. Just virtually everything you see is going to be something interesting.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The Breakthrough team is also interested in extraterrestrial life in our own solar system: Years ago, Yuri Milner looked into the prospects for\u00a0sending a probe to Enceladus, an icy moon of Saturn that may harbor hidden seas and perhaps even marine organisms. Today, Worden and his colleagues are collaborating with other interested parties \u2014 including\u00a0Schmidt Sciences, researchers at\u00a0MIT\u00a0and engineers at\u00a0Rocket Lab\u00a0\u2014 to\u00a0send a probe through Venus\u2019 atmosphere\u00a0to search for organic materials. Liftoff is set for\u00a0as early as next January.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-getting-to-other-stars\">Getting to other stars<\/h2>\n<p>Even though Starshot is on hold, Worden is still thinking about interstellar travel, and he\u2019s not the only one. Last weekend, SpaceX founder Elon Musk referred to the prospects of sending his company\u2019s Starship super-rocket on trips beyond the moon and Mars.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThis Starship is designed to traverse our entire solar system and beyond to the cloud of objects surrounding us,\u201d Musk said in a\u00a0<a rel=\"nofollow\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/elonmusk\/status\/1769605796772331537\">posting to X \/ Twitter<\/a>, his social media platform. \u201cA future Starship, much larger and more advanced, will travel to other star systems.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Musk may not be thinking about using light sails, but NASA is. One of the proposals that won funding in the latest round of NASA Advance Innovative Concepts grants envisions developing\u00a0swarms of sail-equipped, laser-propelled micro-probes\u00a0that would take advantage of the same principle laid out by Breakthrough Starshot to get to the Alpha Centauri system.<\/p>\n<p>Light sails are likely to start out being used for trips to far-out destinations in the solar system. Japan\u2019s space agency tested a solar sail during an experiment in 2010 that\u00a0sent the spacecraft on a flyby past Venus\u00a0\u2014 and looked into a\u00a0follow-up mission to a group of asteroids in Jupiter\u2019s orbit. That idea was put on hold, but Japanese scientists are considering\u00a0other missions that would use solar power sails.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"940\" height=\"730\" src=\"https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/240322-starshot.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-166269\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/240322-starshot.jpg 940w, https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/240322-starshot-580x450.jpg 580w, https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/240322-starshot-250x194.jpg 250w, https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/240322-starshot-768x596.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 89vw, (max-width: 1000px) 54vw, (max-width: 1071px) 543px, 580px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">An artist\u2019s conception shows an early design for Breakthrough Starshot\u2019s light sail. (Breakthrough Initiatives Illustration)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Worden thinks the best long-term approach to interstellar travel would be a combination of light sails to get the probes where they\u2019re going, plus fusion power to slow them down once they get there. \u201cI think that ultimately, something along that line is probably feasible in a century or so, maybe sooner,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p>A century may sound like a long time, but when you\u2019re talking about sending probes to other stars, you have to adjust your time scales. After all, even the super-advanced aliens in \u201c3 Body Problem\u201d need 400 years to get to Earth. You can add interstellar travel to the other multi-generational challenges that are facing humanity, such as climate change. In fact,\u00a0The New Yorker\u2019s review of \u201c3 Body Problem\u201d\u00a0notes that the approach of the aliens serves as \u201can unexpectedly potent metaphor for the looming perils of climate change.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>So, how long could it be before we connect with extraterrestrial civilizations? That\u2019s the kind of question that can get alien-hunters in trouble. Two decades ago, the SETI Institute\u2019s Seth Shostak speculated that we were likely to\u00a0pick up signals from intelligent alien life by the year 2025\u00a0\u2014 a scenario that now seems extremely unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>Worden prefers to think in terms of percentages.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWithin a decade, we\u2019ll almost assuredly find life elsewhere,\u201d he says. \u201cWe\u2019ll probably find a life-bearing planet nearby. We\u2019ll find life either on Mars, or Venus, or maybe the outer solar system moons. But an alien techno-civilization? I\u2019d say, for any given decade, it\u2019s probably a few percent. But if you don\u2019t look, you don\u2019t find it.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>It doesn\u2019t bother him that he may not be around to answer one of life\u2019s ultimate questions. \u201cOne of the cool things about science is that the journey is the fun part, and you never know what you\u2019re going to find,\u201d Worden says. \u201cSo, as a scientist, to me, you\u2019re pursuing something that is unlikely, but really fundamental to our future. It\u2019s the most fun thing I can imagine working on<a\/>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If the aliens ever do arrive, let\u2019s hope they find that oh-so-human trait endearing.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<p><em>Take a look at the original version of this posting on Cosmic Log to get Worden\u2019s recommendations for science-fiction stories about alien contact. Check out the\u00a0Breakthrough Initiatives\u00a0website to learn more about what Worden and his colleagues are up to, and tune into\u00a0\u201c3 Body Problem\u201d\u00a0on Netflix. There\u2019s also a Chinese adaptation of Liu\u2019s books, titled\u00a0\u201cThree-Body,\u201d\u00a0that\u2019s available in the U.S. via\u00a0PBS,\u00a0Peacock,\u00a0Amazon Prime\u00a0and other streaming services.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>M<\/em><em>y co-host for the Fiction Science podcast is Dominica Phetteplace, an\u00a0award-winning writer\u00a0who is a graduate of the\u00a0Clarion West Writers Workshop\u00a0and lives in San Francisco. To learn more about Phetteplace, visit her website,\u00a0DominicaPhetteplace.com, and read\u00a0\u201cThe Ghosts of Mars,\u201d\u00a0her novella in Asimov\u2019s Science Fiction magazine.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>S<em>tay tuned for future episodes of the\u00a0Fiction Science podcast via Apple, Google, Overcast, Spotify, Player.fm, Pocket Casts and Radio Public. If you like Fiction Science, please rate the podcast and subscribe to get alerts for future episodes.<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"sharedaddy sd-block sd-like jetpack-likes-widget-wrapper jetpack-likes-widget-unloaded\" id=\"like-post-wrapper-24000880-166254-65fde790668ba\" data-src=\"https:\/\/widgets.wp.com\/likes\/?ver=13.2#blog_id=24000880&amp;post_id=166254&amp;origin=www.universetoday.com&amp;obj_id=24000880-166254-65fde790668ba&amp;n=1\" data-name=\"like-post-frame-24000880-166254-65fde790668ba\" data-title=\"Like or Reblog\">\n<h3 class=\"sd-title\">Like this:<\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"button\"><span>Like<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"loading\">Loading&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"sd-text-color\"\/><a rel=\"nofollow\" class=\"sd-link-color\"\/><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<br \/><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/166254\/starshot-not-get-a-reality-check-on-the-search-for-alien-civilizations\/?rand=772204\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Fortunately, the real-world search for signs of extraterrestrial civilizations doesn\u2019t have to deal with an alien armada like the one that\u2019s on its way to Earth in\u00a0\u201c3 Body Problem,\u201d\u00a0the Netflix&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":779437,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-779436","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genaero"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/779436","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=779436"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/779436\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/779437"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=779436"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=779436"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=779436"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}