Artificial Intelligence is making its presence felt in thousands of different ways. It helps scientists make sense of vast troves of data; it helps detect financial fraud; it drives our cars; it feeds us music suggestions; its chatbots drive us crazy. And it\u2019s only getting started.<\/p>\n
Are we capable of understanding how quickly AI will continue to develop? And if the answer is no, does that constitute the Great Filter?<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n The Fermi Paradox is the discrepancy between the apparent high likelihood of advanced civilizations existing and the total lack of evidence that they do exist. Many solutions have been proposed for why the discrepancy exists. One of the ideas is the \u201cGreat Filter.\u201d <\/p>\n The Great Filter is a hypothesized event or situation that prevents intelligent life from becoming interplanetary and interstellar and even leads to its demise. Think climate change, nuclear war, asteroid strikes, supernova explosions, plagues, or any number of other things from the rogue\u2019s gallery of cataclysmic events. <\/p>\n Or how about the rapid development of AI?<\/p>\n A new paper in Acta Astronautica explores the idea that Artificial Intelligence becomes Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) and that ASI is the Great Filter. The paper\u2019s title is \u201cIs Artificial Intelligence the Great Filter that makes advanced technical civilizations rare in the universe?\u201d The author is Michael Garrett from the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Manchester. <\/p>\n \u201cWithout practical regulation, there is every reason to believe that AI could represent a major threat to the future course of not only our technical civilization but all technical civilizations.\u201d<\/p>\n Michael Garrett, University of Manchester<\/cite><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/figure>\n Some think the Great Filter prevents technological species like ours from becoming multi-planetary. That\u2019s bad because a species is at greater risk of extinction or stagnation with only one home. According to Garrett, a species is in a race against time without a backup planet. \u201cIt is proposed that such a filter emerges before these civilizations can develop a stable, multi-planetary existence, suggesting the typical longevity (L) of a technical civilization is less than 200 years,\u201d Garrett writes.<\/p>\n If true, that can explain why we detect no technosignatures or other evidence of ETIs (Extraterrestrial Intelligences.) What does that tell us about our own technological trajectory? If we face a 200-year constraint, and if it\u2019s because of ASI, where does that leave us? Garrett underscores the \u201c\u2026critical need to quickly establish regulatory frameworks for AI development on Earth and the advancement of a multi-planetary society to mitigate against such existential threats.\u201d<\/p>\n Many scientists and other thinkers say we\u2019re on the cusp of enormous transformation. AI is just beginning to transform how we do things; much of the transformation is behind the scenes. AI seems poised to eliminate jobs for millions, and when paired with robotics, the transformation seems almost unlimited. That\u2019s a fairly obvious concern.<\/p>\n But there are deeper, more systematic concerns. Who writes the algorithms? Will AI discriminate somehow? Almost certainly. Will competing algorithms undermine powerful democratic societies? Will open societies remain open? Will ASI start making decisions for us, and who will be accountable if it does?<\/p>\n This is an expanding tree of branching questions with no clear terminus. <\/p>\n Stephen Hawking (RIP) famously warned that AI could end humanity if it begins to evolve independently. \u201cI fear that AI may replace humans altogether. If people design computer viruses, someone will design AI that improves and replicates itself. This will be a new form of life that outperforms humans,\u201d he told Wired magazine in 2017. Once AI can outperform humans, it becomes ASI.<\/p>\n Hawking may be one of the most recognizable voices to issue warnings about AI, but he\u2019s far from the only one. The media is full of discussions and warnings, alongside articles about the work AI does for us. The most alarming warnings say that ASI could go rogue. Some people dismiss that as science fiction, but not Garrett. <\/p>\n \u201cConcerns about Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) eventually going rogue is considered a major issue \u2013 combatting this possibility over the next few years is a growing research pursuit for leaders in the field,\u201d Garrett writes.<\/p>\n If AI provided no benefits, the issue would be much easier. But it provides all kinds of benefits, from improved medical imaging and diagnosis to safer transportation systems. The trick for governments is to allow benefits to flourish while limiting damage. \u201cThis is especially the case in areas such as national security and defence, where responsible and ethical development should be paramount,\u201d writes Garrett.<\/p>\n \n\n
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