{"id":782100,"date":"2024-05-09T16:10:56","date_gmt":"2024-05-09T21:10:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=782100"},"modified":"2024-05-09T16:10:56","modified_gmt":"2024-05-09T21:10:56","slug":"g4-severe-geomagnetic-storm-expected-as-multiple-cmes-merge-and-impact-earth-on-may-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=782100","title":{"rendered":"G4 – Severe geomagnetic storm expected as multiple CMEs merge and impact Earth on May 11"},"content":{"rendered":"


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Multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) \u2014 of which at least 4 halo CMEs produced by Active Region 3664 over the past few days \u2014 will hit Earth, starting late May 10 into May 11, 2024<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

A G4 \u2013 Severe or greater geomagnetic storm<\/strong> is expected on May 11, with effects potentially extending into May 12 and 13. The storm is anticipated to impact regions primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. It could lead to widespread voltage control issues, with some protective systems potentially tripping key assets from the power grid due to mistakenly identified faults. Pipeline currents are also expected to intensify.<\/p>\n

Spacecraft systems may face surface charging, heightened drag on low-earth orbit satellites, and potential tracking and orientation challenges. Satellite navigation (GPS) systems may experience significant degradation or become inoperable for hours. High-frequency (HF) radio communication could face sporadic propagation or complete blackouts. The aurora borealis might be visible as far south as Alabama and northern California.<\/p>\n

G4 is the second-highest geomagnetic storm classification on NOAA\u2019s scale, occurring approximately 100 times per solar cycle, which spans 11 years. The only classification above G4 is G5 \u2013 Extreme, which occurs around four times per cycle.<\/p>\n

A G5 \u2013 Extreme geomagnetic storm can have widespread and significant impacts across various systems. In power systems, these storms can lead to voltage control issues and malfunctions in protective systems, potentially causing entire grids to collapse or experience blackouts. Transformers can also suffer damage due to increased electrical stress.<\/p>\n

Spacecraft operations may face severe surface charging, which can interfere with orientation. Uplink and downlink signals, as well as satellite tracking, can be disrupted, hindering communication and data transmission.<\/p>\n

In other systems, pipeline currents can surge to hundreds of amps, causing potential damage to pipeline infrastructure. High-frequency (HF) radio propagation may become impossible in many areas for up to two days, and satellite navigation could be degraded for several days. Low-frequency radio navigation may also be unavailable for hours. The aurora can appear as far south as Florida and southern Texas, around 40\u00b0 geomagnetic latitude, during these storms.<\/p>\n

Enhancements in the solar wind environment are likely to start today, May 9, following the anticipated glancing effects of a CME that departed the Sun on May 6. <\/p>\n

Then, late on May 10 and into May 11, stronger enhancements are likely as the three CMEs that departed the Sun on May 8 and 9 are anticipated to merge into one and impact Earth.<\/p>\n

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\u201cA new NOAA forecast model suggests that three of them could merge to form a potent Cannibal CME,\u201d said Dr. Tony Phillips of SpaceWeather.com.<\/p>\n

\u201cCannibal CMEs form when fast-moving CMEs overtake slower CMEs in front of them, Phillips explains. \u201cInternal shock waves created by such CME collisions do a good job sparking geomagnetic storms when they strike Earth\u2019s magnetic field.\u201d<\/p>\n

Solar researchers believe cannibal CMEs may be the source of \u2018complex ejecta\u2019 CME clouds; those with a larger and more complex structure than typical CMEs. These traits cause complex ejecta CMEs to trigger protracted magnetic storms when they envelop the Earth, according to NOAA.<\/p>\n

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