{"id":785306,"date":"2024-07-05T18:11:56","date_gmt":"2024-07-05T23:11:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=785306"},"modified":"2024-07-05T18:11:56","modified_gmt":"2024-07-05T23:11:56","slug":"how-will-the-next-one-play-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=785306","title":{"rendered":"How Will the Next One Play Out?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Wars in space are no longer just science fiction. In fact, Space War I has been raging for more than two years, with no quick end in sight. This isn\u2019t the kind of conflict that involves X-wing fighters or Space Marines. Instead, it\u2019s a battle over how satellites are being used to\u00a0collect imagery,\u00a0identify military targets\u00a0and\u00a0facilitate communications\u00a0in the war between Ukraine and Russia.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAs I looked at Ukraine in the early months, it was obvious to me: This is the first space war,\u201d says\u00a0David Ignatius, a journalist who lives a double life as a foreign-affairs columnist for The Washington Post and a spy-thriller novelist.<\/p>\n<p>In the latest episode of the\u00a0Fiction Science podcast, Ignatius delves into the potential national-security threats posed by satellite-based warfare \u2014 and how he wove those threats into the plot threads of a new novel titled\u00a0\u201cPhantom Orbit.\u201d\u00a0The tale lays out a scenario in which Space War I tips toward a potentially catastrophic Space War II.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-spotify wp-block-embed-spotify wp-embed-aspect-21-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<p>\n<iframe title=\"Spotify Embed: David Ignatius on satellite wars and &amp;apos;Phantom Orbit&amp;apos;\" style=\"border-radius: 12px\" width=\"100%\" height=\"152\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"\" allow=\"autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/6I9PQA6lqq62uGHWnjKFWO?si=8BvhG6M2TWyw2f2UHgshrA&amp;utm_source=oembed\"><\/iframe>\n<\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p><span id=\"more-167692\"\/><\/p>\n<p>Ignatius shies away from calling the novel \u201cscience fiction.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAll of my books really are drawn from my reporting,\u201d he says. \u201cI begin with the real world \u2014 the subjects that interest me \u2014 and if they seem bigger and more important than I can express in a newspaper column of 800 or 1,200 words, then I think maybe that might be a novel.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The real-world reporting behind \u201cPhantom Orbit\u201d began in 2017, when Ignatius\u00a0became intrigued\u00a0by\u00a0calls for the creation of the U.S. Space Force. Over the years that followed, he mapped out a spy-novel plot with a Russian satellite researcher as one of the main characters \u2014 and made plans for a research trip to Russia\u2019s industrial heartland.<\/p>\n<p>But before he could take that trip, the war in Ukraine broke out in February 2022 \u2014 and Russia put Ignatius on its list of banned travelers. \u201cMy journalist friends were envious,\u201d he recalls.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-full is-resized\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">David Ignatius is a Washington Post columnist as well as a novelist. (Credit: Stephen Voss)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Ignatius ended up stealing an assortment of plot points from real-life developments in the war in Ukraine \u2014 for example, how Russia\u00a0jammed Viasat\u2019s satellite internet network\u00a0at the start of its offensive, how SpaceX\u2019s\u00a0Starlink network stepped into the breach\u00a0to help Ukraine fight back, and how\u00a0commercial satellite imagery\u00a0contributed to Ukraine\u2019s battlefield awareness. <\/p>\n<p>In response, the Russians have escalated the space-based battle \u2014 by\u00a0interfering\u00a0with Starlink, scrambling\u00a0satellite navigation systems and\u00a0\u00a0camouflaging\u00a0its military assets to hide them from satellite sensors.<\/p>\n<p>If Space War I gets hotter, Ignatius worries that Russia may resort to\u00a0measures that bring down entire satellite constellations. \u201cWe should be very scared about the vulnerability of space systems,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n<p>For\u00a0more than two decades, policymakers have warned about the potential for a\u00a0\u201cspace Pearl Harbor\u201d\u00a0\u2014 a sneak attack on America\u2019s orbital assets. Ignatius points to U.S. Rep. Mike Turner\u2019s\u00a0recent warning\u00a0about the potential for Russia to use nuclear weapons in space. Such weapons might destroy enough satellites to create a crippling debris field in orbit, or shut down electronics with an electromagnetic pulse.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe Russians understand their vulnerability in space. They understand that the United States and its commercial companies would suffer asymmetric damage. We\u2019d suffer a lot more than Russia or China,\u201d Ignatius says. \u201cSo, they\u2019re willing to go forward with this planning, and it ought to scare the heck out of people.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>What is to be done? \u201cWhat I would say, first, is that our existing systems in space need to be hardened,\u201d Ignatius says. \u201cThey need to be less vulnerable to all of the mischief that an adversary could attempt.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The U.S. Space Force is already well into its effort to make satellite networks more resilient \u2014 and more replaceable in the event of an attack. That\u2019s what its\u00a0\u201cTactically Responsive Space\u201d\u00a0initiative is all about. Millions of dollars are being paid out to commercial ventures to\u00a0demonstrate how they could help the U.S. military\u00a0send up fresh assets to support existing networks in a matter of days, if not hours.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"alignright size-large is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"679\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Phantom-679x1024.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-167695\" style=\"width:250px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Phantom-679x1024.jpg 679w, https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Phantom-384x580.jpg 384w, https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Phantom-166x250.jpg 166w, https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Phantom-768x1159.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Phantom-1018x1536.jpg 1018w, https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Phantom-1357x2048.jpg 1357w, https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/Phantom-scaled.jpg 1697w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 679px) 100vw, 679px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u201cPhantom Orbit\u201d by David Ignatius. (Jacket Design: Pete Garceau for W.W. Norton &amp; Co.)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>One rapid-response demonstration mission, known as\u00a0Victus Nox, was conducted successfully last year with Firefly Aerospace and Millennium Space Systems serving as the Space Force\u2019s commercial partners. Another demonstration,\u00a0Victus Haze, is currently being readied by Rocket Lab and\u00a0True Anomaly. In all,\u00a0a dozen commercial launch providers\u00a0are on the Space Force\u2019s list for future rapid-response satellite missions.<\/p>\n<p>The Space Force is even supporting the development of new space station architectures \u2014 such as the\u00a0orbital system being built by Gravitics, a Seattle-area startup.<\/p>\n<p>Keeping track of what\u2019s going on in orbit \u2014 also known as space domain awareness \u2014 is another must-have for ensuring America\u2019s space security. With Pentagon support,\u00a0True Anomaly,\u00a0Starfish Space\u00a0and Northrop Grumman\u2019s SpaceLogistics subsidiary are working on spacecraft that could approach other satellites in orbit to inspect them, refuel them, boost them into different orbits or deorbit them safely.<\/p>\n<p>In the Fiction Science podcast, Ignatius hints that there may be bigger things to come. \u201cI was just hearing about a company that\u2019s going to radically change the way space and other big weapons systems are built,\u201d he says. \u201cIt will revolutionize how weapons are built. The Russians and Chinese just don\u2019t have anything remotely like that kind of creativity. So, there are a lot of reasons that I think people should be worried, but that\u2019s a reason people should be reassured.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Which begs the question: Which company is Ignatius talking about? If I had to guess, I\u2019d put a bet down on\u00a0a defense-tech startup called Anduril. But Ignatius isn\u2019t telling. At least, not yet.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s coming to a Washington Post near you,\u201d he says with a laugh.<\/p>\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n<p><em>\u201cPhantom Orbit\u201d\u00a0is David Ignatius\u2019 12th novel. Check out\u00a0DavidIgnatius.com\u00a0for links to information about his books and about\u00a0his columns for The Washington Post. He\u2019ll participate in a\u00a0live online chat with readers\u00a0on July 15.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>For more about space security policy, check out the resources offered by the\u00a0Center for Strategic and International Studies, including the center\u2019s latest\u00a0Space Threat Assessment. Ignatius also recommends\u00a0resources provided by The Aerospace Corp.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>This report and the accompanying podcast were originally published on Alan Boyle\u2019s Cosmic Log. Stay tuned for future episodes of the\u00a0Fiction Science podcast\u00a0via\u00a0Apple,\u00a0Spotify,\u00a0Player.fm,\u00a0Pocket Casts\u00a0and\u00a0Podchaser.\u00a0If you like Fiction Science, please rate the podcast and subscribe to get alerts for future episodes.<\/em><\/p>\n<div class=\"sharedaddy sd-block sd-like jetpack-likes-widget-wrapper jetpack-likes-widget-unloaded\" id=\"like-post-wrapper-24000880-167692-66887b40e7121\" data-src=\"https:\/\/widgets.wp.com\/likes\/?ver=13.2#blog_id=24000880&amp;post_id=167692&amp;origin=www.universetoday.com&amp;obj_id=24000880-167692-66887b40e7121&amp;n=1\" data-name=\"like-post-frame-24000880-167692-66887b40e7121\" data-title=\"Like or Reblog\">\n<h3 class=\"sd-title\">Like this:<\/h3>\n<p><span class=\"button\"><span>Like<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"loading\">Loading&#8230;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span class=\"sd-text-color\"\/><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.universetoday.com\/167692\/space-war-phantom-orbit-david-ignatius\/?rand=772204\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Wars in space are no longer just science fiction. In fact, Space War I has been raging for more than two years, with no quick end in sight. This isn\u2019t&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":785307,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-785306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genaero"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/785306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=785306"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/785306\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/785307"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=785306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=785306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=785306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}