{"id":786458,"date":"2024-07-28T01:34:57","date_gmt":"2024-07-28T06:34:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=786458"},"modified":"2024-07-28T01:34:57","modified_gmt":"2024-07-28T06:34:57","slug":"multiple-earth-directed-cmes-significant-geomagnetic-storming-possible","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=786458","title":{"rendered":"Multiple Earth-directed CMEs, significant geomagnetic storming possible"},"content":{"rendered":"


\n<\/p>\n

\n

Solar activity was at very high levels over the past 24 hours, with a series of moderate to strong solar flares, including an M9.9 flare on July 28 with an Earth-directed component. This, coupled with the cannibal CME expected to arrive late on July 29 into July 30, suggests significant geomagnetic storming is possible, potentially in the range of G3 \u2013 Strong or even G4 \u2013 Severe on July 30.<\/strong><\/p>\n

According to the SWPC update at 00:30 UTC on July 28, at least two Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been observed since late July 26. The first CME was associated with a filament eruption late on July 26, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 21:24 UTC.<\/p>\n

The second CME was produced by a long-duration M3.1 flare from Active Region 3762 that peaked at 05:46 UTC on July 27. The latter CME was the faster of the two in modeling results and is expected to cannibalize the former. Although the timing has low confidence, modeling results showed a first arrival late on July 29 to early July 30.<\/p>\n

Based on this, SWPC predicted a G1 \u2013 Minor storm is likely late on July 29, increasing to G2 \u2013 Moderate as the bulk of the July 27 CME passes through the near-Earth environment.<\/p>\n

\n
<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

However, solar activity further increased and reached very high levels with M9.9 at 01:57 UTC on July 28 from Active Region 3766. This event started at 01:53 and ended at 02:01 UTC.<\/p>\n

Associated with this flare event was a Type II Radio Emission (estimated velocity 943 km\/s) \u2014 suggesting a CME was produced, and a 10cm Radio Burst, lasting 6 minutes and with a peak flux of 250 sfu.<\/p>\n

A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.<\/p>\n

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over East Asia and the Pacific Ocean at the time of this flare.<\/p>\n

The location of the source region and available coronagraph imagery suggest we have another Earth-directed CME.<\/p>\n

\n
\"sunspots
Sunspots on July 28, 2024. Credit: NASA\/SDO HMI<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\"goes-x-ray-flux-1-minute<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\"nasa
M9.9 solar flare on July 28, 2024. Credit: NASA\/SDO, AIA 304, Helioviewer, The Watchers<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\"nasa
M9.9 solar flare on July 28, 2024. Credit: NASA\/SDO, AIA 131, Helioviewer, The Watchers<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

We are still waiting for updated models, but space weather physicist Dr. Tamitha Skov suggests we could be seeing at least G3 \u2013 Strong if not G4 \u2013 Severe storming as a result.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith at least three if not four Earth-directed solar storms launched earlier today, this is sure to be the icing on the cake. It may not be as intense as the Gannon Storm back on May 10, but this compression of multiple back-to-back storms has at least G3 if not G4-level potential. Waiting for coronagraphs & model prediction runs,\u201d Skov said.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
\n

With at least three if not four Earth-directed #solarstorms<\/a> launched earlier today, this is sure to be the icing on the cake. It may not be as intense as the Gannon Storm back on May 10, but this compression of multiple back-to-back storms has at least G3 if not G4-level\u2026 https:\/\/t.co\/cYnDnPNqig<\/p>\n

\u2014 Dr. Tamitha Skov (@TamithaSkov) July 28, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/center>

<\/p>\n
\n

Three halo CMEs were seen in LASCO imagery. 1st CME visible at 04:41 UTC, is related to the farside eruption. 2nd CME visible from 05:33 UTC, is associated with an M4.2 flare from AR3766. 3rd CME visible at 06:33 UTC, resulted from an M3.1 flare in AR3762. pic.twitter.com\/K3E6fn8eiO<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Edward.Vijayakumar (@edwanx) July 27, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

<\/center><\/p>\n

The analysis of the M9.9 flare event is still in progress. This report will be updated accordingly.<\/em><\/p>\n

References:<\/p>\n

1<\/sup> Forecast Discussion \u2013 NOAA\/SWPC \u2013 Issued at 00:30 UTC on July 28, 2024<\/p>\n

Featured image credit: ESA\/NASA SOHO, NASA SDO\/AIA, Helioviewer, The Watchers<\/em><\/p>\n

\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n

Major X14 solar flare erupts on the Sun\u2019s far side, the strongest flare of Solar Cycle 25<\/h3>\n

Friday, July 26, 2024<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n

Two Earth-directed CMEs, G2 \u2013 Moderate geomagnetic storm watch in effect<\/h3>\n

Monday, July 22, 2024<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n

Powerful X1.9 solar flare erupts, producing strong CME<\/h3>\n

Tuesday, July 16, 2024<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n

Major X1.2 solar flare erupts from AR 3738<\/h3>\n

Sunday, July 14, 2024<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n

Study reveals major impacts of G5 \u2013 Extreme geomagnetic storm on satellite operations in May 2024<\/h3>\n

Saturday, July 13, 2024<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n

Old region 3664 returns with M9.3 solar flare<\/h3>\n

Sunday, June 23, 2024<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n

\n
\n
\n

G2 \u2013 Moderate geomagnetic storm watch, X1.5 flare erupts from departing Region 3697<\/h3>\n

Monday, June 10, 2024<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/section>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n