{"id":789364,"date":"2024-09-20T10:52:52","date_gmt":"2024-09-20T15:52:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=789364"},"modified":"2024-09-20T10:52:52","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T15:52:52","slug":"the-k7ra-solar-update-46","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=789364","title":{"rendered":"The K7RA Solar Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"date\">09\/20\/2024<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Solar activity was quiet over the past week, but geomagnetic numbers<br \/>were way, way up.<\/p>\n<p>Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 178.4 to 120, and average<br \/>daily solar flux from 223.7 to 175.7.<\/p>\n<p>Average daily planetary A index rocketed from 7.9 to 35.7, and<br \/>middle latitude numbers from 11.1 to 23.4.<\/p>\n<p>Six new sunspot groups emerged over the past week; one each on<br \/>September 13 and 14, two on September 16, and two each on September<br \/>17 and 18.<\/p>\n<p>Predicted solar flux is 160 and 155 on September 20-21, 150 on<br \/>September 22-26, then a huge leap to 230 and 225 on September 27-28,<br \/>240 on September 29 through October 2, 230 on October 3, 220 on<br \/>October 4-5, then 215, 205 and 207 on October 6-8, 201, 186 and 172<br \/>on October 9-11, 173 and 175 on October 12-13, 170 on October 14-16,<br \/>165 on October 17-18, 170 on October 19, 225 on October 20-21, then<br \/>230, 225, 230 and 225 on October 22-25, then 240 on October 26-29.<\/p>\n<p>Predicted planetary A index is 5, 10 and 8 on September 20-22, 5 on<br \/>September 23-26, then 25, 15 and 10 on September 27-29, then 5 on<br \/>September 30 through October 4, 10 on October 5-6, and 5 on October<br \/>7-9, 10 on October 10, 20 on October 11-13, 15 on October 14, 10 on<br \/>October 15-16, then 5 on October 17-22, 25 on October 23-24, and 15<br \/>and 10 on October 25-26.<\/p>\n<p>Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth&#8217;s<br \/>Ionosphere &#8211; September 19, 2024 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Overall solar activity has decreased slightly in recent days, but<br \/>before that AR3825 produced energetic flares, including two of the<br \/>largest: X1.3 on September 12th and a very strong X4.5 on September<br \/>14th. The arrival of the CMEs and the onset of the disturbance,<br \/>expected on the afternoon of UT Sept 16th, was delayed and<br \/>registered as an influx of protons in the solar wind at 22:44 UT<br \/>Sept 16th. After that, a geomagnetic disturbance started to develop,<br \/>which significantly affected the shortwave propagation conditions,<br \/>especially on 17 September.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;A more pronounced upsurge in solar flux can be expected once the<br \/>large active regions known to be present through helioseismology<br \/>start to reappear at the eastern limb of the solar disk. This should<br \/>happen around 26 September. However, a repeat of the August 28-29<br \/>disturbance is expected in the same period. Therefore, an<br \/>improvement in propagation conditions can be expected before<br \/>September 26, or better yet, shortly during the onset of the<br \/>disturbance-after which a deterioration will occur.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>New STCE newsletter:<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/www.stce.be\/newsletter\/newsletter.php<\/p>\n<p>The latest video from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Big Solar Storm Side Swipe with More Up a Sleeve | Space Weather Spotlight 16 September 2024\" width=\"1110\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/o0HWm0W-YRw?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to<br \/>k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don&#8217;t forget to tell us<br \/>which mode you were operating.<\/p>\n<p>For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see<br \/> and the ARRL Technical Information<br \/>Service web page at,  . For<br \/>an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see<br \/> .<\/p>\n<p>An archive of past propagation bulletins is at<br \/> . More good<br \/>information and tutorials on propagation are at  .<\/p>\n<p>Also, check this article:<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/bit.ly\/3Rc8Njt<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Understanding Solar Indices&#8221; from September 2002 <em>QST<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL<br \/>bulletins are at  .<\/p>\n<p>Sunspot numbers for September 12 through 18 2024 were 160, 127, 136,<br \/>68, 103, 140, and 106, with a mean of 120. 10.7 cm flux was 201.2,<br \/>185.8, 172.4, 172.8, 169.2, 165.4, and 163.3, with a mean of 175.7.<br \/>Estimated planetary A indices were 67, 37, 21, 19, 23, 71, and 12,<br \/>with a mean of 35.7. Middle latitude A Index was 36, 22, 22, 16, 19,<br \/>39, and 10, with a mean of 23.4.<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.arrl.org\/news\/view\/the-k7ra-solar-update-846?rand=771671\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>09\/20\/2024 Solar activity was quiet over the past week, but geomagnetic numberswere way, way up. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 178.4 to 120, and averagedaily solar flux from 223.7&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":771673,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-789364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ARRL"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/789364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=789364"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/789364\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/771673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=789364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=789364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=789364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}