The small island nations of the South Pacific are facing the harsh reality of sea level rise. Within 50 years they will be swamped by rising seas linked to climate change. That\u2019s part of a stark forecast from a sea level change science team at NASA and leading universities. <\/p>\n
<\/p>\n The group used satellites to predict rising ocean levels. According to their data, Pacific nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati, and Fiji will experience an increased rise in sea levels. That threatens the homes and livelihoods of millions of people.<\/p>\n The team that examined the rise of sea levels threatening South Pacific nations is part of an interdisciplinary research group at NASA. Its job is to improve our understanding of sea-level change over time. The members analyzed the South Pacific threat at the request of the affected nations and coordinated with the U.S. State Department. They created high-resolution maps showing which areas of different Pacific Island nations would be vulnerable to high-tide flooding. The maps outline the potential for flooding. In addition, they take into account different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, ranging from best-case to business-as-usual to worst-case.<\/p>\n A combination of space-based and ground-based measurements can yield more precise sea level rise projections. That should give an improved understanding of the impacts on countries in the Pacific. Still, it\u2019s one thing to create predictive models and share that data with affected nations. It\u2019s quite another to actually experience the gradual rise of sea levels as the people of the South Pacific islands and other low-lying areas along the world\u2019s coastlines.<\/p>\n \u201cI am living the reality of climate change,\u201d said Grace Malie, a youth leader from Tuvalu who is involved with the Rising Nations Initiative, a United Nations-supported program led by Pacific Island nations to help preserve their statehood and protect the rights and heritage of populations affected by climate change. \u201cEveryone (in Tuvalu) lives by the coast or along the coastline, so everyone gets heavily affected by this.\u201d<\/p>\n Researchers from the University of Hawaii, the University of Colorado, and Virginia Tech all took part in the study, which used a new Pacific Islands Flooding Tool for the project. The data they use comes from measurements by satellites, shipboard and airborne instruments, and supercomputer analysis. The result is a more precise assessment of sea levels and their rise and fall over time. Using this data, the science teams found some worrying trends.<\/p>\n \u201cSea level will continue to rise for centuries, causing more frequent flooding,\u201d said Dr. Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, who directs ocean physics programs for NASA\u2019s Earth Science Division. \u201cNASA\u2019s new flood tool tells you what the potential increase in flooding frequency and severity look like in the next decades for the coastal communities of the Pacific Island nations.\u201d <\/p>\n Sea level rise is based on a number of factors, including melting of glaciers and other ice packs and ocean warming related to pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Based on the data from NASA satellites, the Pacific Islands most at risk will see at least a 15-cm sea level rise by 2050. That\u2019s nearly an order of magnitude higher than all Pacific Island nations experience now. To give you an idea of how that will affect specific places, Tuvalu currently sees less than five high tide flood days per year. By 2050, residents will experience at least 25 flood days each year. Kiribati will see 65 flood events. The maps produced by the NASA-led team for these and other islands should help these nations plan for future flood mitigation efforts.<\/p>\n \u201cScience and data can help the community of Tuvalu in relaying accurate sea level rise projections,\u201d said Malie. \u201cThis will also help with early warning systems, which is something that our country is focusing on at the moment.\u201d<\/p>\n Not every area in the world experiences the same amount of flooding. Local conditions and coastlines contribute to area-specific floods. The impact that 15 centimeters of sea level rise will have varies from country to country. Some regions will see nuisance flooding several times a year in flat or low-lying areas. Others face inundation for longer periods with higher amounts of water.<\/p>\n \u201cWe\u2019re always focused on the differences in sea level rise from one region to another, but in the Pacific, the numbers are surprisingly consistent,\u201d said Ben Hamlington, a sea level researcher at NASA\u2019s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and the agency\u2019s sea level change science team lead.<\/p>\n The impacts of sea level rise will vary from place to place and depend on topography, shapes of coastlines, and other factors. Better predictive tools will help scientists understand where sea levels will rise the most and share that information with affected populations. Researchers would like to combine satellite data on ocean levels with ground-based measurements of sea levels at specific points, as well as with better land elevation information. \u201cBut there\u2019s a real lack of on-the-ground data in these countries,\u201d said Hamlington.<\/p>\n \nThe Team\u2019s Work<\/h3>\n
How NASA Tracks Sea-level Rise<\/h3>\n
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What Affects Sea Level?<\/h3>\n
Assessing Sea Level Rise<\/h3>\n