{"id":791209,"date":"2024-11-15T12:08:04","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T17:08:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=791209"},"modified":"2024-11-15T12:08:04","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T17:08:04","slug":"the-k7ra-solar-update-52","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=791209","title":{"rendered":"The K7RA Solar Update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"date\">11\/15\/2024<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Only five new sunspot groups emerged this week. First was on<br \/>November 7, next on November 9, two more on November 11, and another<br \/>on November 13.<\/p>\n<p>Average daily sunspot number declined from 193.4 to 141.6, while<br \/>average daily solar flux went from 248.4 to 203.7.<\/p>\n<p>Predicted solar flux is 145 on November 15-16, 155 on November<br \/>17-18, then 145 on November 19, 140 November 20-21, then 235, 240,<br \/>255 and 260 on November 22-25, 270 on November 26-27, then 255 and<br \/>250 on November 28-29, 240 on November 30 and December 1, 230 on<br \/>December 2-3, and 225 and 220 on December 4-5, then 225 on December 6-7, and 175, 170, and 175 on December 8-10, then 165 on December 11-14, 178 and 185 on December 15-16, 200 on December 17-18, then 235, 240, 255 and 260 on December 19-22.<\/p>\n<p>Estimated planetary A index is 12, 10, 8, 12 and 8 on November<br \/>15-19, 5 on November 20-24, 10 on November 25-26, then 8, 5, 5 and<br \/>10 on November 27-30, then 12, 9, 8, 7 and 5 on December 1-5, 12 on<br \/>December 6-8, then 8, 12 and 10 on December 9-11, 8 on December<br \/>12-13, then 5, 8, 5 and 12 on December 14-17.<\/p>\n<p>From HMI Science Nuggets, a possible explanation for solar cycle<br \/>double peaks:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"QZ6a4hQnN6\"><p><a href=\"http:\/\/hmi.stanford.edu\/hminuggets\/?p=2685\">A possible explanation of the double peaks in solar cycles<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;A possible explanation of the double peaks in solar cycles&#8221; &#8212; HMI Science Nuggets\" src=\"http:\/\/hmi.stanford.edu\/hminuggets\/?p=2685&#038;embed=true#?secret=QZ6a4hQnN6\" data-secret=\"QZ6a4hQnN6\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth&#8217;s<br \/>Ionosphere &#8211; November 14, 2024, from F.K. Janda, OK1HH:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Of the three active regions in the past few days, two have fallen<br \/>behind the western limb of the solar disk. Therefore, the solar flux<br \/>has dropped significantly. The third sunspot group was AR3889, which<br \/>crossed the central meridian midweek. Its size of over 400<br \/>millionths of the solar disk area, and in particular the optical &#8216;F&#8217;<br \/>and magnetic &#8216;Beta-Gamma-Delta&#8217; configurations, indicate that the<br \/>production of moderate size flares will continue. So, because it is<br \/>in the west, like most coronal holes, the solar wind should<br \/>intensify, and the Earth&#8217;s magnetic field activity should increase.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;This development, in fact, has already begun on November 14. First,<br \/>conditions worsened after the polarity of the longitudinal component<br \/>of the interplanetary magnetic field changed to negative between<br \/>0200-0500 UTC, while the density of protons in the solar wind<br \/>increased. This was correctly followed by an increase in its<br \/>velocity from 350 km\/s to 440 km\/s. Due to the anticipated increase<br \/>in the solar wind, a further several days of turbulence is expected,<br \/>followed by calming down only during the following week.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Coronal Holes, Fast Wind, and Filament Eye Candy | Space Weather Spotlight 14 November 2024\" width=\"1110\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/lGpDztCtTwY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Send your tips, reports, observations, questions and comments to<br \/>k7ra@arrl.net. When reporting observations, don&#8217;t forget to tell us<br \/>which mode you were operating.<\/p>\n<p>For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see<br \/> and the ARRL Technical Information<br \/>Service web page at,  For<br \/>an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see<br \/> .<\/p>\n<p>An archive of past propagation bulletins is at<br \/> . More good<br \/>information and tutorials on propagation are at  .<\/p>\n<p>Also, check this article:<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/bit.ly\/3Rc8Njt<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;<em>Understanding Solar Indices<\/em>&#8221; from September 2002 <em>QST<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p>Instructions for starting or ending email subscriptions to ARRL<br \/>bulletins are at  .<\/p>\n<p>Sunspot numbers for November 7 through 13, 2024 were 164, 167, 176,<br \/>121, 138, 116, and 109, with a mean of 141.6. 10.7 cm flux was<br \/>239.2, 231, 220.9, 230.6, 182.2, 171.7, and 150.3, with a mean of<br \/>203.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 11, 32, 25, 10, 5, and<br \/>7, with a mean of 14.1. Middle latitude A Index was 7, 7, 24, 15, 7,<br \/>4, and 5, with a mean of 9.9.<br \/>\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.arrl.org\/news\/view\/the-k7ra-solar-update-853?rand=771671\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>11\/15\/2024 Only five new sunspot groups emerged this week. First was onNovember 7, next on November 9, two more on November 11, and anotheron November 13. Average daily sunspot number&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":771673,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-791209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ARRL"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/791209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=791209"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/791209\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/771673"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=791209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=791209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=791209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}