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Solar activity increased again to high levels on December 29, with a major X1.1 solar flare at 07:18 UTC, preceded by a flurry of M-class flares \u2014 mostly from Region 3936.<\/p>\n
There were no detected radio signatures associated with the X1.1 event that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced.<\/p>\n
Region 3936 has a \u2018beta-delta\u2019 magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more strong eruptions on the Sun. Its current location still favors Earth-directed CMEs but the probabilities are diminishing as it continues rotating toward the west limb.<\/p>\n<\/noscript>X1.1 solar flare on December 29, 2024. Credit: NOAA\/GOES-16, SUVI<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n
X1.1 solar flare on December 29, 2024. Image credit: NOAA\/GOES-16, The Watchers<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n
X1.1 solar flare on December 29, 2024. Image credit: NOAA\/GOES-16, The Watchers<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\nRadio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over the Indian Ocean at the time of the flare.<\/p>\n
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Image credit: SWPC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\nSolar activity was at moderate levels in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC today, with three M-class flares \u2014 M4.5 at 11:21 UTC on December 28, M1.3 at 15:18 UTC, and M1.2 at 22:14 UTC.<\/p>\n
This was followed by a notable rise in activity with 8 M-class flares preceding the X1.1 \u2014 M1.0 at 02:35 UTC, M1.3 at 02:46 UTC, another M1.3 at 03:30 UTC, M1.2 at 04:05, M2.0 at 04:30, M3.1 at 05:26, M3.5 at 05:47 and M3.0 at 06:59 UTC. This latest event was associated with a Type IV Radio Emission, suggesting a strong CME was produced.<\/p>\n
Almost all of them were produced by regions 3936 and 3939.<\/p>\n
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Image credit: SWPC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\nRegion 3939 also produced a long-duration C8.6 flare that began at approximately 19:13 UTC, with dimming observed near this region at 19:24 UTC. Analysis of this CME to determine the presence of a CME is underway, SWPC forecasters said.<\/p>\n
Solar activity is expected to remain elevated over the next three days, with 70 to 75% of M-class flares and 20 to 25% of X-class.<\/p>\n
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly elevated above the background over the past 24 hours but remained below the S1 \u2013 Minor solar radiation storm threshold. A slight chance for S1 \u2013 Minor radiation storm event persists through December 31 given the current total disk potential.<\/p>\n
Solar wind parameters remained at mostly nominal levels during the reporting period. The total magnetic field was primarily under 5 nT, with brief periods reaching up to 6 nT. The Bz component stayed mostly neutral, with no significant southward deflections. Solar wind speeds increased slightly, rising from below 300 km\/s to approximately 350 km\/s in the latter half of December 28. The phi angle was predominantly negative, with occasional excursions into a positive solar sector.<\/p>\n
Weak enhancements are possible through December 30 due to the influence of a weak, positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). However, solar wind parameters are expected to remain at mostly nominal levels by December 31.<\/p>\n
Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are anticipated on December 29 and 30 due to the weak CH HSS influence. By December 31, primarily quiet conditions are expected to prevail.<\/p>\n
References:<\/p>\n
1<\/sup> Forecast Discussion \u2013 NOAA\/SWPC \u2013 Issued at 00:30 UTC on December 29, 2024<\/p>\n
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