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\t\t\t\t\t\t29\/01\/2025<\/span> The European Space Agency (ESA) Planetary Defence Office is closely monitoring the recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4, which has a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2032.<\/p>\n \u00a0This page was last updated on 29 January 2025.<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n<\/div>\n Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on 27 December 2024\u00a0at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in R\u00edo Hurtado, Chile.<\/p>\n Shortly after its discovery, automated asteroid warning systems determined that the object had a very small chance of potentially impacting Earth on 22 December 2032. 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 m\u00a0and 100 m wide. An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n As a result, the object rose to the top of\u00a0ESA\u2019s asteroid risk list.\u00a0Since early January, astronomers have been carrying out priority follow-up observations using telescopes around the world and using the new data to improve our understanding of the asteroid\u2019s size and trajectory.<\/p>\n As of 29 January 2025, ESA estimates that the probability that asteroid 2024 YR4 may impact Earth on 22 December 2032 is 1.2%. This result is consistent with independent estimates made by NASA\u2019s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and NEODyS.<\/p>\n Asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale: a close encounter that warrants attention from astronomers and the public.\u00a0It is important to remember that an asteroid\u2019s impact probability often rises at first before quickly dropping to zero after additional observations. For an explanation of why this happens, see the video below:<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to likely be larger than 50 m and has an impact probability higher than 1% at a point in time within the next 50 years. It therefore meets all of the criteria necessary to activate the two UN-endorsed asteroid reaction groups: the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG).<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n IAWN, chaired by NASA, is responsible for coordinating the international group of organisations involved in asteroid tracking and characterisation. If appropriate, IAWN would develop a strategy to assist world governments in the analysis of asteroid impact consequences and in the planning of any necessary mitigation responses.<\/p>\n ESA is a member of IAWN and is now coordinating additional observations and regularly updating its risk assessment.<\/p>\n The asteroid\u2019s orbit around the Sun is elongated (eccentric). It is currently moving away from Earth in almost a straight line, making it difficult to accurately determine its orbit by studying how its trajectory curves over time.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n Over the next few months, the asteroid will begin to fade out of view from Earth. During this time, ESA will coordinate observations of the asteroid with increasingly powerful telescopes, culminating in the use of the European Southern Observatory\u2019s Very Large Telescope in Chile, to gather as much data as possible.<\/p>\n It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will fade from view before we are able to entirely rule out any chance of impact in 2032. In this case, the asteroid will likely remain on ESA\u2019s risk list until it becomes observable again in 2028.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n SMPAG, chaired by ESA, is responsible for facilitating the international exchange of information, developing opportunities for collaborative research and missions, and conducting near-Earth object threat mitigation planning activities related to asteroid 2024 YR4.<\/p>\n The Group will convene at its existing planned meeting in Vienna next week to determine its next steps. If the asteroid\u2019s impact probability remains above the 1% threshold, SMPAG will provide recommendations to the UN and may begin to evaluate the different options for a spacecraft-based response to the potential hazard.<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n For more information, please contact:<\/p>\n \nESA Media Relations
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What do we know?<\/h2>\n
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The International Asteroid Warning Network<\/h2>\n
The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group<\/h2>\n
Note for media<\/h2>\n
media@esa.int<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n