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NOAA reports a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic Storm Watch has been issued
for 14 Feb, 2025. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
move into a position favorable for enhanced interaction between the
high speed stream and Earth’s magnetosphere. These enhancements are
likely to cause elevated geomagnetic responses, with G1 (Minor)
storm levels likely.<\/p>\n
From Spaceweather.com: Another solar wind stream is heading for
Earth. It is flowing from a canyon-like hole in the Sun’s
atmosphere. First contact with the stream on February 14th could
cause a minor G1-class geomagnetic storm with Arctic auroras for
Valentine’s Day.<\/p>\n
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4.\u00a0 The
greatest expected 3 hr Kp for February 13 to 15 is 4.67.<\/p>\n
No Minor S1 or greater solar radiation storms are expected.\u00a0 No
significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.<\/p>\n
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past
24 hours. The largest was at February 13 at 1109 UTC.<\/p>\n
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for R1 to R2, and
Minor to Moderate activity on February 13 to 15.<\/p>\n
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s
Ionosphere – February 13, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:<\/p>\n
“Total solar activity was highest last October in the current
11-year cycle. Since then, it has been declining, but slowly. This
is also true for flare activity. Medium strong solar flares were
produced mainly by the active region of AR3981. Some of these were
accompanied by CMEs, none of which hit the Earth directly, but
passed close enough to affect its atmosphere.<\/p>\n
“NOAA predicted on February 8 that there was a possibility of G1
class geomagnetic storms on February 10 and 11. The prediction
turned out to be fairly accurate – although geomagnetic field
activity increased as early as February 9, it was highest on
February 10 and was elevated on February 11. Therefore, ionospheric
shortwave propagation conditions were at their worst on 10 February
and subsequently improved only very slowly in the following days.<\/p>\n
“We now observe a large coronal hole, resembling a canyon, on the
Sun, which could be another source of enhanced solar wind. Earth
should be hit by it on Valentine’s Day, or February 14. The days
ahead will also be rather unsettled, but the active regions now
rising near the southeastern limb of the solar disk will cause an
uptick in solar activity, nevertheless, causing improved propagation
conditions.<\/p>\n
“The good news at the end: at on the bottom
left, after an eleven-week hiatus, we can see a map of the entire
Sun, especially the Sun’s far side, under the ‘Farside Watch’
banner. So the JSOC glitch has been fixed, and after another click
on we can read more under the
heading ‘Time-Distance Helioseismic Far-Side Imaging.'”<\/p>\n
The latest report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found online
at, .
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