{"id":793791,"date":"2025-02-21T09:46:29","date_gmt":"2025-02-21T14:46:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=793791"},"modified":"2025-02-21T09:46:29","modified_gmt":"2025-02-21T14:46:29","slug":"asteroid-2024-yr4s-impact-probablity-drops-to-0-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=793791","title":{"rendered":"Asteroid 2024 YR4\u2019s impact probablity drops to 0.16%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Asteroid 2024 YR4, which has been making headlines since January as the \u201ccity killer,\u201d has finally dropped down on the asteroid impact risk list, with new simulations indicating a significantly lower chance of impact.<\/p>\n<p>According to the European Space Agency\u2019s Planetary Defence Office (PDO), the impact probability of the asteroid has dropped from 2.8% on February 19 to just 0.16 % on February 21.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, NASA is predicting an impact probability of 0.28 % or a 1 in 360 chance of impact based on 391 observations of the asteroid. This means the asteroid is now just a level 1 risk on the Torino scale for asteroid impact risk instead of a level 3, where it was for much of February.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video controls=\"\" class=\"perfmatters-lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/YR4-risk-GIF-pause-crop-21Feb-with-percentage-bold.webm\"\/><noscript><video controls=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/YR4-risk-GIF-pause-crop-21Feb-with-percentage-bold.webm\"\/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Evolution of the risk corridor for asteroid 2024 YR4, using data from observations made up to\u00a020 February 2025. Each red dot represents the asteroid\u2019s possible location on 22 December 2032. The yellow dot represents the location that best fits the available observations. Image credit: ESA\/PDO<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This comes as no surprise as scientists had predicted that the probability would rise before falling down and probably hitting zero as more observational data comes to light.<\/p>\n<p>Astronomers have been using the James Webb Telescope to study the 2024 YR4 in infrared light to obtain an accurate estimate of the asteroid\u2019s size and also to observe the asteroid once it is beyond the limits of ground-based telescopes to provide the final measurements of its orbit until it returns to view in 2028.<\/p>\n<p>References:<\/p>\n<p><sup>1<\/sup> ESA actively monitoring near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 \u2013 ESA\/PDO \u2013 February 21, 2025<\/p>\n<p><!-- MOLONGUI AUTHORSHIP PLUGIN 5.0.14 --><br \/>\n<!-- https:\/\/www.molongui.com\/wordpress-plugin-post-authors --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/2025\/02\/21\/asteroid-2024-yr4-impact-probablity-drops-to-0-16\/?rand=772151\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Asteroid 2024 YR4, which has been making headlines since January as the \u201ccity killer,\u201d has finally dropped down on the asteroid impact risk list, with new simulations indicating a significantly&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":793792,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-793791","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genaero"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/793791","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=793791"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/793791\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/793792"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=793791"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=793791"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=793791"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}