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A private company is aiming to heave a microwave oven-size spacecraft toward an asteroid later this week, its goal to kick off a future where precious metals are mined around the solar system to create vast fortunes on Earth.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf this works out, this will probably be the biggest business ever conceived of,\u201d said Matt Gialich, the founder and chief executive of AstroForge, the builder and operator of the robotic probe.<\/p>\n
That may sound familiar: A decade ago, news stories were aflutter about the wealth promised by asteroid mining companies. But things didn\u2019t quite work out.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe blossomed three or four years too early for the big gold rush of investor enthusiasm for space projects,\u201d said David Gump, the former chief executive of Deep Space Industries, one of the earlier batch of would-be asteroid miners. Eventually the money dried up; Deep Space Industries was sold off in 2019 and never reached an asteroid.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
AstroForge is betting on things being different this time around. The California company has already launched a demonstration spacecraft into Earth orbit and raised $55 million in funding. Now the company is set to actually travel toward a near-Earth asteroid in deep space.<\/p>\n
AstroForge\u2019s second robotic spacecraft, called Odin, is bundled into a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket that will also launch a privately built moon lander and a NASA-operated lunar orbiter as soon as Wednesday from Florida. About 45 minutes after the launch, Odin will separate and begin its solo journey into deep space, while the moon missions \u2014 the Athena lander from Intuitive Machines and NASA\u2019s Lunar Trailblazer \u2014 take off on their own separate journeys.<\/p>\n
No commercial company has ever launched an operational mission beyond the moon, and AstroForge is the first company to receive a license from the Federal Communications Commission that allows it to transmit from deep space. AstroForge will communicate with the spacecraft using undisclosed dishes in India, South Africa, Australia and the United States.<\/p>\n
At first, AstroForge kept its target asteroid a secret, fearing competitors. But in January, the company announced the destination, an object called 2022 OB5. Mr. Gialich said he was more confident of AstroForge\u2019s advantage.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re the only one that\u2019s actually doing anything,\u201d he said. \u201cWho else is preparing to go to an asteroid?\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Asteroid 2022 OB5 is small, no more than 330 feet across, about the size of a football field. AstroForge\u2019s science team assessed the asteroid by using telescopes, including the Lowell Observatory and the Large Binocular Telescope in Arizona, to estimate its metallic content. They believe that 2022 OB5 is an M-type, a class of asteroids comprising 5 percent of known space rocks that may have a high amount of metal. The analysis of the asteroid has not yet been published.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Stephanie Jarmak, a planetary scientist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, said the company\u2019s analysis was plausible.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere are several different ways to determine whether it\u2019s an M-type or not,\u201d she said, including studying the asteroid\u2019s brightness, or albedo. A higher brightness suggests the presence of more metal. She lauded the company for being more open about its target asteroid. \u201cI thought that was really nice,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n
M-type asteroids are thought to be rich in metals such as iron and nickel. These could be useful as a resource for construction in space, perhaps to build new spacecraft and machinery. However, some M-types may also be rich in more valuable platinum group metals, or P.G.M.s, used in devices such as smartphones. The windfall would be huge if these could be mined in abundance and brought to Earth.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u201cA single one-kilometer-diameter asteroid, if it was platinum-bearing, would contain about 117,000 tons of platinum,\u201d said Mitch Hunter-Scullion, the founder and chief executive of the Asteroid Mining Corporation in Britain. His company is taking a slower approach and plans to demonstrate technologies on the moon later this decade.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat\u2019s about 680 years of global supply. You\u2019re talking about centuries of platinum demand from a single asteroid,\u201d Mr. Hunter-Scullion said. \u201cEven if you get 1,000 tons of platinum, you\u2019re sitting there with the next half century of mobile phones.\u201d<\/p>\n
Not everyone is convinced that so much valuable metal will be found inside M-type asteroids.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere\u2019s not enough P.G.M.s in asteroids to justify that as a stand-alone business,\u201d said Joel C. Sercel, the founder and chief executive of TransAstra, a company that is developing a giant bag that could be used to grab and extract resources from asteroids in the future. The company will test a small mock-up of the technology aboard the International Space Station following a launch to the station this summer.<\/p>\n
The legalities of mining asteroids and selling their resources remain uncertain.<\/p>\n
In 2015, President Obama signed a law allowing asteroid resources to be sold on Earth. But no one has yet put this law to the test.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u201cIs AstroForge going to make a claim? Does the fact they reach this asteroid before anybody else mean nobody else can go to it?\u201d asked Michelle Hanlon, a law professor specializing in space at the University of Mississippi. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be interesting to see the international reaction.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Odin will arrive in late 2025 after a journey of about 300 days to 2022 OB5. The asteroid follows an orbit around the sun similar to Earth\u2019s. The probe will fly past the asteroid at a distance of 0.6 miles, using two black-and-white cameras to snap pictures. Zooming by the object at thousands of miles per hour, the spacecraft will have an encounter that will last five and a half hours.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd it\u2019s probably only the last 10 minutes that we\u2019re getting pictures bigger than a pixel,\u201d Mr. Gialich said.<\/p>\n
The goal is for these pictures to be enough to tell if the asteroid is metallic.<\/p>\n
\u201cHopefully it looks shiny,\u201d Mr. Gialich said. However, it\u2019s very possible that any metal could be mixed into the asteroid\u2019s soil and not be visible.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m not sure how much compositional information they can get purely from images,\u201d Dr. Jarmak, the planetary scientist, said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Craters on the surface may hint at hidden metal though, Mr. Gialich said, adding: \u201cWe expect to see cracking on the surface\u201d that could be indicative of metallic content.<\/p>\n
The spacecraft will also precisely track the asteroid\u2019s position in space during the flyby. Doing so could allow the density of the asteroid to be calculated, based on its gravitational tug on the spacecraft. Higher density would hint at more metallic content.<\/p>\n
Success is not guaranteed. AstroForge\u2019s first mission, Brokkr-1, was launched into low-Earth orbit in April 2023 to test the company\u2019s planned asteroid refining technology. But the mission encountered problems and burned up in the atmosphere. Mr. Gialich said that AstroForge had improved its technologies on the Odin spacecraft by relying on components produced in-house.<\/p>\n
Vestri, the third mission of AstroForge, will be its most ambitious. That spacecraft, the size of a refrigerator, will be designed to land on an asteroid as soon as next year, possibly even 2022 OB5 if the metallic content is confirmed. Vestri\u2019s landing legs would be equipped with magnets designed to stick to the surface of the asteroid and be capable of estimating how many P.G.M.s are present.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
It\u2019s unclear how successful this mission will be. \u201cIf it\u2019s made out of solid metal it will stick,\u201d said Benjamin Weiss, a planetary scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. However, many asteroids are known to be rubble piles, essentially collections of rocks held together loosely by gravity, such as the asteroid Bennu that was visited by NASA\u2019s ORISIS-REx spacecraft.<\/p>\n
\u201cThey are barely held together,\u201d Dr. Weiss said, meaning that the magnets might just end up pulling a few rocks away from the surface as the lander drifts away.<\/p>\n
Only one spacecraft, the Rosetta spacecraft from the European Space Agency, has visited a suspected M-type asteroid before, a flyby of the asteroid 21 Lutetia in 2010. The presence of metal at that time was inconclusive. A much more capable mission, NASA\u2019s $1.2 billion Psyche spacecraft, is currently on its way to an asteroid bearing the same name by 2029. Astronomers think the asteroid may be a fragment of a failed planet\u2019s core and is rich in metal.<\/p>\n
Results from the Odin mission\u2019s analysis of 2022 OB5 could be a tantalizing tease for Psyche. \u201cIf it turns out it\u2019s made of solid metal, that would support the idea that some of these larger bodies like Psyche could be the cores of differentiated bodies,\u201d Dr. Weiss said.<\/p>\n
Lindy Elkins-Tanton at Arizona State University, the principal investigator on Psyche and also an adviser to AstroForge, said that the opportunities afforded by commercial deep space missions like Odin are exciting, enabling small and fast missions at low cost. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be a bit of a game-changer,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
Others are more focused on what Odin means for asteroid mining in the present tense.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s probably the highest achievement in the sector so far,\u201d Mr. Hunter-Scullion of Asteroid Mining Corporation said. Mr. Sercel of TransAstra also applauded the company.<\/p>\n
\u201cWe\u2019re gung-ho for AstroForge and wish them the best of luck,\u201d he said. \u201cWe\u2019re behind them 100 percent.\u201d<\/p>\n
Now there\u2019s just the small matter of the launch and journey to the asteroid, and the hope that what Odin finds will lead to the riches long touted from asteroid mining.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf we make it, I\u2019m popping champagne,\u201d Mr. Gialich said.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n