{"id":793889,"date":"2025-02-25T13:25:07","date_gmt":"2025-02-25T18:25:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=793889"},"modified":"2025-02-25T13:25:07","modified_gmt":"2025-02-25T18:25:07","slug":"impact-probability-for-2024-yr4-drops-to-0-0017-moon-impact-at-1-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=793889","title":{"rendered":"Impact probability for 2024 YR4 drops to 0.0017%, moon impact at 1.7%"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has dropped to 0.0017 %. Now that there\u2019s only a 1 in 59 000 chance of the asteroid\u2019s impact in 2032, the asteroid has dropped to a level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.<\/p>\n<p>According to NASA, there remains a 1.7% chance of the asteroid impacting the moon on December 22, 2032.<\/p>\n<p>Asteroid 2024 YR4 was detected at the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile on December 27, 2024. <span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">By late January, the impact risk of the\u00a0asteroid was 1.2%, making it a level 3 on the Torino risk scale, which ranges from 0 (no risk) to 10 (certain global catastrophes).<\/span><\/p>\n<p>A level 3 classification indicates a close encounter meriting attention, with a probability of impact that could cause localized damage. Historically, asteroids initially rated at this level have often been downgraded as more data became available.<\/p>\n<p>2024 YR4, which was being dubbed the \u201ccity-killer,\u201d followed the historical precedent as well \u2014 it first rose on the impact risk scale before getting downgraded.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video controls=\"\" class=\"perfmatters-lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Asteroid_2024_YR4_impact_risk_rises_and_falls.webm\"\/><noscript><video controls=\"\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/Asteroid_2024_YR4_impact_risk_rises_and_falls.webm\"\/><\/noscript><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Visual representation of the rise and fall 2024 YR4\u2019s impact probability. Image credit: ESA\/Planetary Defense Office<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;\">The asteroid, which is estimated to be 40-90 m (130 to 295 feet) in diameter, rose to an\u00a0impact risk of 1.8%\u00a0on February 6 and later jumped to\u00a02.6 % on February 18,\u00a0jumping again to 2.8% on the same day.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>This meant the asteroid had surpassed the asteroid Apophis, which peaked at 2.7%, making it a level 4 on the Torino scale. The asteroid\u2019s rising impact risk triggered planetary defense procedures, prompting space agencies to evaluate the potential response strategies.<\/p>\n<p>After peaking at 2.8%, the impact probability began to decrease as astronomers refined their calculations of the object\u2019s trajectory. By February 21, 2024 YR4\u2019s impact probability had dropped to 0.16%, effectively downgrading it to Level 1 on the Torino scale.<\/p>\n<p>References:<\/p>\n<p><sup>1<\/sup> Latest Calculations Conclude Asteroid 2024 YR4 Now Poses No Significant Threat to Earth in 2032 and Beyond \u2013 NASA \u2013 February 24, 2025<\/p>\n<p><!-- MOLONGUI AUTHORSHIP PLUGIN 5.0.14 --><br \/>\n<!-- https:\/\/www.molongui.com\/wordpress-plugin-post-authors --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/2025\/02\/25\/impact-probability-for-2024-yr4-drops-to-0-0017-moon-impact-at-1-7\/?rand=772151\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has dropped to 0.0017 %. Now that there\u2019s only a 1 in 59 000 chance of the asteroid\u2019s impact in 2032, the asteroid&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":793890,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-793889","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-genaero"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/793889","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=793889"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/793889\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/793890"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=793889"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=793889"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=793889"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}