\n<\/p>\n
Solar activity has decreased to very low levels. Region 4266
exhibited signs of slight development as it gained asymmetric
penumbra surrounding its trailing spots. Meanwhile, Region 4267
underwent decay, losing several leading spots. Additional activity
included a coronal mass ejection (CME) off the NE limb on October
29.
\u00a0
An associated Type II radio sweep was reported with the CME; however
SUVI 195 imagery revealed the CME to have originated on the far
side. Also, an approximate 12 degree filament eruption, centered
near N27W24 was observed becoming unstable beginning October 29.
Most of the material of this event appeared to have been reabsorbed
with perhaps a faint and narrow CME escaping. Modeling of this event
revealed a possible glancing blow to the north of Earth by late on
November 2, but confidence is low in both the analysis of this event
and the modeling outcome.
\u00a0
Solar wind parameters continued to reflect positive polarity coronal
hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences. Solar wind parameters
are expected to continue to reflect positive CH HSS influences
through November 1.<\/p>\n
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth’s
Ionosphere, October 30, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:<\/p>\n
“It is very rare for the situation on the Sun and between it and
Earth to be as relatively simple and clear as it has been in recent
days. This is one of the reasons why it was possible to make a
fairly accurate prediction of further developments. Although there
were concerns that an intensified solar wind could hit Earth as
early as October 26, the original forecast ultimately proved
accurate and the disturbance began on October 28. The last weekend
in October was thus marked by relatively good conditions for radio
wave propagation on all shortwave bands.<\/p>\n
“Regular helioseismological observations of the far side of the Sun
are closely monitoring the only two currently active regions on the
Sun. They will begin to emerge on the eastern edge of the solar disk
in the first half of next week, which will immediately be reflected
in an increase in solar flux. This may peak around October 10, but
it seems that it will happen sooner.<\/p>\n
“The increase in solar activity during the usual favorable seasonal
changes alone will result in improved conditions for shortwave
propagation. With a little luck, the improvement could peak around
November 8, when the next increase in geomagnetic activity can be
expected.”<\/p>\n
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels until November
15 due to the return of Region 4246. Low levels are expected to
prevail from November 14 to 22 as multiple regions depart the
visible disk.<\/p>\n
A greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at high levels until November 15 due to responses
from recurrent CH HSS influences.\u00a0 Moderate levels are expected from
November 16 to 22.<\/p>\n
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled
levels on November 1 to 6, 10 to 14, and November 16 to 22.\u00a0 Active
conditions are expected from November 7 to 9, and November 15.<\/p>\n
The latest video report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube at, .<\/p>\n
Spaceweather.com for October 31 reports on “Halloween Fireballs” and
the rapid brightening of Comet 3I\/ATLAS.<\/p>\n
The Predicted Planetary A Index for November 1 to 7 is 8, 5, 5, 5,
5, 5, 8, and 12, with a mean of 6.9.\u00a0 Predicted Planetary K Index is
3, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, and 4, with a mean of 2.6.\u00a0 10.7-centimeter flux
is 130, 130, 135, 140, 140, 140, and 140, with a mean of 136.4.<\/p>\n
For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see
and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
. Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, .<\/p>\n
Also, check this:<\/p>\n
https:\/\/bit.ly\/3Rc8Njt<\/p>\n