{"id":799087,"date":"2025-11-11T13:02:28","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T18:02:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=799087"},"modified":"2025-11-11T13:02:28","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T18:02:28","slug":"g4-severe-or-greater-geomagnetic-storm-forecast-aurora-likely-as-low-as-alabama-and-california","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=799087","title":{"rendered":"G4 – Severe or greater geomagnetic storm forecast, aurora likely as low as Alabama and California"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A powerful X5.1 solar flare erupted from Active Region 4274 at 10:04 UTC on November 11. This was the fifth X-class solar flare detected since November 4 and the fourth from the same region, following X1.8 on November 4, X1.7 on November 9, and X1.2 on November 10.<\/p>\n
This event had an associated Type-II (1 350 km\/s) radio sweep and an F10.7 cm radio burst (10 000 sfu). There was also a Castelli-U radio burst, as well as an asymmetric halo CME, with an Earth-directed component.<\/p>\n
The initial impact expected late on November 12 and peak geomagnetic effects on November 13. Two earlier CMEs, produced by the X1.7 flare on November 9 and the X1.2 flare on November 10, are also heading toward Earth, with their arrivals expected to precede and potentially merge with the latest CME, increasing the overall geomagnetic impact.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis is making for a very complicated and difficult forecast, and SWPC forecasters are hard at it this Veteran\u2019s Day, sorting together to create an updated forecast,\u201d SWPC said.<\/p>\n
The merging of the CMEs would be a perfect setup for significant geomagnetic storming and widespread aurora.<\/p>\n