{"id":799493,"date":"2025-12-02T04:11:31","date_gmt":"2025-12-02T09:11:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=799493"},"modified":"2025-12-02T04:11:31","modified_gmt":"2025-12-02T09:11:31","slug":"g2-geomagnetic-storm-and-aurora-forecast-for-december-3-4-following-cme-from-x1-9-solar-flare","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=799493","title":{"rendered":"G2 geomagnetic storm and aurora forecast for December 3-4 following CME from X1.9 solar flare"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div xmlns:default=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<p>Solar wind parameters are currently trending toward nominal levels following the waning influence of a positive-polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (HSS). However, conditions are expected to become disturbed again from December 3 as multiple solar wind structures interact with Earth\u2019s magnetosphere.<\/p>\n<p>According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), three distinct drivers will influence the solar wind during this period: a sector boundary crossing from positive to negative polarity, a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead of a negative-polarity coronal hole high-speed stream, and a glancing impact from the coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the X1.9 flare at 02:49 UTC on December 1.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"perfmatters-lazy-youtube\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/REm0OWnMsRY\" data-id=\"REm0OWnMsRY\" data-query=\"feature=oembed\" onclick=\"perfmattersLazyLoadYouTube(this);\">\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><noscript><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"X1.9 solar flare on December 1, 2025\" width=\"1110\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/REm0OWnMsRY?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/noscript>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>The CME, first visible in SOHO\/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 02:48 UTC, has an estimated speed of approximately 1 000 km\/s.<\/p>\n<p>Modeling indicates the bulk of the ejecta will pass north and east of the Earth\u2013Sun line, but its flank may compress the magnetosphere enough to produce G2 \u2013 Moderate geomagnetic storming.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"897\" height=\"896\" alt=\"cme produced by x1.9 solar flare on december 1 2025 esa nasa lasco c3\" class=\"wp-image-238774 perfmatters-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3.webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3.webp 897w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3-300x300.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3-150x150.webp 150w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3-768x767.webp 768w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3-600x600.webp 600w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3-70x70.webp 70w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 897px) 100vw, 897px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"897\" height=\"896\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3.webp\" alt=\"cme produced by x1.9 solar flare on december 1 2025 esa nasa lasco c3\" class=\"wp-image-238774\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3.webp 897w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3-300x300.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3-150x150.webp 150w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3-768x767.webp 768w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3-600x600.webp 600w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/cme-produced-by-x1.9-solar-flare-on-december-1-2025-esa-nasa-lasco-c3-70x70.webp 70w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 897px) 100vw, 897px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">CME produced by X1.9 solar flare on December 1, 2025. Image credit: NASA\/ESA SOHO LASCO C3<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"957\" height=\"598\" alt=\"wsa enlil x1.9 solar flare cme forecast december 3 2025\" class=\"wp-image-238861 perfmatters-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/wsa-enlil-x1.9-solar-flare-cme-forecast-december-3-2025.webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/wsa-enlil-x1.9-solar-flare-cme-forecast-december-3-2025.webp 957w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/wsa-enlil-x1.9-solar-flare-cme-forecast-december-3-2025-300x187.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/wsa-enlil-x1.9-solar-flare-cme-forecast-december-3-2025-768x480.webp 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"957\" height=\"598\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/wsa-enlil-x1.9-solar-flare-cme-forecast-december-3-2025.webp\" alt=\"wsa enlil x1.9 solar flare cme forecast december 3 2025\" class=\"wp-image-238861\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/wsa-enlil-x1.9-solar-flare-cme-forecast-december-3-2025.webp 957w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/wsa-enlil-x1.9-solar-flare-cme-forecast-december-3-2025-300x187.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/wsa-enlil-x1.9-solar-flare-cme-forecast-december-3-2025-768x480.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Image credit: SWPC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>SWPC forecasts unsettled to active geomagnetic field levels on December 2, increasing to G2 \u2013 Moderate conditions on December 3-4. If the CME and CIR arrive simultaneously, short periods of G3 \u2013 Strong activity are possible, though confidence in this timing remains low. G2 Watches have been issued for both December 3 and 4.<\/p>\n<p>Under clear-sky conditions, auroral activity may be visible at geomagnetic latitudes down to approximately 55\u00b0, potentially reaching regions such as the northern United States from Washington to Michigan, southern Canada, and northern and central Europe (Scotland, Denmark, southern Sweden, northern Germany, Poland). It may also reach the South Island of New Zealand. Visibility will depend on local darkness and geomagnetic response at the time of impact.<\/p>\n<p>The most intense phase of the disturbance is expected to occur during the night of December 3 into early December 4, depending on the CME\u2019s arrival and the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). If Bz turns strongly southward, auroral visibility may extend further toward mid-latitudes.<\/p>\n<p>A G2 \u2013 Moderate geomagnetic storm can cause temporary voltage fluctuations in high-latitude power systems, minor impacts on satellite operations, and occasional HF radio signal degradation at polar routes.<\/p>\n<p>At present, solar wind speeds have decreased to around 415 km\/s (258 miles\/s), with the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude near 5 nT and a Bz component fluctuating between +\/\u22124 nT. The values are expected to rise as the incoming structures reach Earth.<\/p>\n<p><!-- MOLONGUI AUTHORSHIP PLUGIN 5.1.0 --><br \/>\n<!-- https:\/\/www.molongui.com\/wordpress-plugin-post-authors --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/2025\/12\/02\/g2-geomagnetic-storm-aurora-forecast-december-3-4-2025\/?rand=772108\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Solar wind parameters are currently trending toward nominal levels following the waning influence of a positive-polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (HSS). However, conditions are expected to become disturbed again from&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":799494,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-799493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-space-weather-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=799493"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/799493\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/799494"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=799493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=799493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=799493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}