{"id":800481,"date":"2026-02-03T05:50:29","date_gmt":"2026-02-03T10:50:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=800481"},"modified":"2026-02-03T05:50:29","modified_gmt":"2026-02-03T10:50:29","slug":"cme-produced-by-x8-1-flare-forecast-to-reach-earth-on-february-5-causing-g1-geomagnetic-storm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=800481","title":{"rendered":"CME produced by X8.1 flare forecast to reach Earth on February 5, causing G1 geomagnetic storm"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div xmlns:default=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\">\n<p>Solar activity remained high through February 2 as Region 4366 (beta-gamma-delta) continued to expand and develop a complex delta magnetic configuration.<\/p>\n<p>This large region produced multiple M- and X-class flares over the past 36 hours, including an X8.1 flare at 23:57 UTC on February 1, an X2.8 at 00:36 UTC, and an X1.6 at 08:14 UTC on February 2.<\/p>\n<p>The X8.1 event generated a CME observed departing the Sun\u2019s northeastern quadrant in LASCO imagery at 00:12 UTC on February 2. Radio data from U.S. Air Force observatories recorded a Type II burst with a shock velocity of approximately 873 km\/s (542 miles\/s).<\/p>\n<p>Modeling shows the eruption\u2019s outer edge is likely to deliver a glancing impact to Earth\u2019s magnetosphere late UTC on February 5, resulting in G1 \u2013 Minor geomagnetic storm conditions.<\/p>\n<p>Possible effects under G1 conditions include weak power-grid fluctuations, minor spacecraft operations impacts, and auroral visibility across northern U.S. states such as Michigan and Maine.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"perfmatters-lazy-youtube\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/uNgr8kwCGTE\" data-id=\"uNgr8kwCGTE\" data-query=\"feature=oembed\" onclick=\"perfmattersLazyLoadYouTube(this);\">\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><noscript><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"X8.1 and X2.8 solar flares from AR 4366 - SDO\/AIA 304 timelapse (full disk)\" width=\"1110\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/uNgr8kwCGTE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/noscript>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" alt=\"cme produced by x8.1 solar flare on february 1 2026 lasco c3\" class=\"wp-image-242346 perfmatters-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/cme-produced-by-x8.1-solar-flare-on-february-1-2026-lasco-c3.webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/cme-produced-by-x8.1-solar-flare-on-february-1-2026-lasco-c3.webp 1024w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/cme-produced-by-x8.1-solar-flare-on-february-1-2026-lasco-c3-300x150.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/cme-produced-by-x8.1-solar-flare-on-february-1-2026-lasco-c3-768x384.webp 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/cme-produced-by-x8.1-solar-flare-on-february-1-2026-lasco-c3.webp\" alt=\"cme produced by x8.1 solar flare on february 1 2026 lasco c3\" class=\"wp-image-242346\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/cme-produced-by-x8.1-solar-flare-on-february-1-2026-lasco-c3.webp 1024w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/cme-produced-by-x8.1-solar-flare-on-february-1-2026-lasco-c3-300x150.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/cme-produced-by-x8.1-solar-flare-on-february-1-2026-lasco-c3-768x384.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by X8.1 solar flare on February 1, 2026. Credit: NASA\/ESA SOHO LASCO C3, The Watchers<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"600\" alt=\"enlil cme impact forecast february 5 2026\" class=\"wp-image-242348 perfmatters-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/enlil-cme-impact-forecast-february-5-2026.webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/enlil-cme-impact-forecast-february-5-2026.webp 960w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/enlil-cme-impact-forecast-february-5-2026-300x188.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/enlil-cme-impact-forecast-february-5-2026-768x480.webp 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/enlil-cme-impact-forecast-february-5-2026.webp\" alt=\"enlil cme impact forecast february 5 2026\" class=\"wp-image-242348\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/enlil-cme-impact-forecast-february-5-2026.webp 960w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/enlil-cme-impact-forecast-february-5-2026-300x188.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/enlil-cme-impact-forecast-february-5-2026-768x480.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">CME impact forecast. Image credit: SWPC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Region 4366 remains the dominant source of solar activity on the visible disk, with continued growth in intermediary spots and increasing magnetic complexity. Two new regions, 4370 and 4371, rotated into view from the east limb but have not shown comparable activity.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" alt=\"sunspots on february 3 2026\" class=\"wp-image-242345 perfmatters-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026.webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026.webp 1024w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026-300x300.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026-150x150.webp 150w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026-768x768.webp 768w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026-600x600.webp 600w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026-70x70.webp 70w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"1024\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026.webp\" alt=\"sunspots on february 3 2026\" class=\"wp-image-242345\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026.webp 1024w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026-300x300.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026-150x150.webp 150w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026-768x768.webp 768w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026-600x600.webp 600w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/sunspots-on-february-3-2026-70x70.webp 70w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sunspots on February 3, 2026. Credit: NASA\/SDO HMI<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>SWPC forecasts moderate-to-high solar activity through February 5, with an 80% probability of M-class and a 40% probability of X-class flares from Region 4366.<\/p>\n<p>Solar-wind measurements at L1 remained quiet on February 2, with total magnetic field (Bt) values between 4 and 7 nT, a southward Bz to \u20136 nT, and speeds near 300\u2013315 km\/s. A disturbance is expected on February 5 when the CME associated with the X8.1 flare arrives.<\/p>\n<p>Electron flux levels exceeded 7 290 pfu at 20:30 UTC on February 2, while proton flux remained at background values. Minor S1 proton enhancements are possible between February 3 and 5 due to continuing activity from Region 4366 and associated ejecta.<\/p>\n<p>Geomagnetic activity should remain quiet through February 4 before rising to storm levels as the CME arrives.<\/p>\n<p>Forecast models show Planetary A index values rising to 16 on February 5 and mid-latitude K-indices up to 4, consistent with G1 conditions.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"925\" height=\"710\" alt=\"active region 4366 closeup february 2 2026\" class=\"wp-image-242280 perfmatters-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/active-region-4366-closeup-february-2-2026.webp\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/active-region-4366-closeup-february-2-2026.webp 925w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/active-region-4366-closeup-february-2-2026-300x230.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/active-region-4366-closeup-february-2-2026-768x589.webp 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 925px) 100vw, 925px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"925\" height=\"710\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/active-region-4366-closeup-february-2-2026.webp\" alt=\"active region 4366 closeup february 2 2026\" class=\"wp-image-242280\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/active-region-4366-closeup-february-2-2026.webp 925w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/active-region-4366-closeup-february-2-2026-300x230.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/active-region-4366-closeup-february-2-2026-768x589.webp 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 925px) 100vw, 925px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Active Region 4366 on February 2, 2026. Credit: NASA\/SDO HMIBC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Region 4366 is one of the largest and most magnetically complex areas observed so far in Solar Cycle 25, which is currently approaching its maximum phase.<\/p>\n<p>The X8.1 flare it produced on February 1 is the third-strongest flare of the cycle, following X9.0 on October 3, 2024, and X8.7 on May 14, 2024.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"perfmatters-lazy-youtube\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MkQKI2N5E8k\" data-id=\"MkQKI2N5E8k\" data-query=\"feature=oembed\" onclick=\"perfmattersLazyLoadYouTube(this);\">\n<div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" alt=\"YouTube video\" width=\"480\" height=\"360\" data-pin-nopin=\"true\" nopin=\"nopin\" class=\"perfmatters-lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/MkQKI2N5E8k\/hqdefault.jpg\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/i.ytimg.com\/vi\/MkQKI2N5E8k\/hqdefault.jpg\" alt=\"YouTube video\" width=\"480\" height=\"360\" data-pin-nopin=\"true\" nopin=\"nopin\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><noscript><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"X8.1 and X2.8 solar flares from AR 4366 - SDO\/AIA 304 timelapse (closeup)\" width=\"1110\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/MkQKI2N5E8k?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/noscript>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p><!-- MOLONGUI AUTHORSHIP PLUGIN 5.1.0 --><br \/>\n<!-- https:\/\/www.molongui.com\/wordpress-plugin-post-authors --><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/2026\/02\/03\/cme-produced-by-x8-1-flare-forecast-to-reach-earth-on-february-5-causing-g1-geomagnetic-storm\/?rand=772108\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Solar activity remained high through February 2 as Region 4366 (beta-gamma-delta) continued to expand and develop a complex delta magnetic configuration. This large region produced multiple M- and X-class flares&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":800482,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-800481","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-space-weather-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/800481","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=800481"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/800481\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/800482"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=800481"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=800481"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=800481"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}