{"id":801486,"date":"2026-04-02T14:45:33","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T19:45:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=801486"},"modified":"2026-04-02T14:45:33","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T19:45:33","slug":"asymmetric-halo-cme-following-april-1-filament-eruption-forecast-to-deliver-a-glancing-blow-on-april-4","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=801486","title":{"rendered":"Asymmetric halo CME following April 1 filament eruption forecast to deliver a glancing blow on April 4"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>A filament eruption spanning approximately 25\u00b0 occurred in Active Region 4403 at 23:28 UTC on April 1, in association with a C6.1 solar flare. The bulk of the ejecta propagated toward the north-northwest, largely offset from the Sun\u2013Earth line.<\/p>\n<p>An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected at 23:45 UTC in GOES CCOR-1 coronagraph imagery. The CME exhibited an asymmetric halo structure, indicating that part of the expanding plasma cloud intersects the observational plane surrounding Earth, while the main ejecta remains directed away from the planet.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<p>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Asymmetric halo CME following April 1 filament eruption\" width=\"1110\" height=\"624\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/t6I56oty0fs?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<p>Initial model estimates suggest that the CME is likely to pass predominantly north of Earth\u2019s orbital path, with only a peripheral interaction possible. This geometry supports a glancing blow scenario, where Earth encounters the flank of the CME rather than its central region.<\/p>\n<p>Glancing interactions usually result in reduced energy transfer into the magnetosphere compared to direct impacts.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Image credit: ESA\/NASA LASCO C2<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" data-lazyloaded=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"859\" height=\"859\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/lasco-c3-april-2-2026-0218-asymetric-halo-cme.webp\" alt=\"lasco c3 april 2 2026 0218 asymetric halo cme\" class=\"wp-image-246008\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/lasco-c3-april-2-2026-0218-asymetric-halo-cme.webp 859w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/lasco-c3-april-2-2026-0218-asymetric-halo-cme-300x300.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/lasco-c3-april-2-2026-0218-asymetric-halo-cme-150x150.webp 150w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/lasco-c3-april-2-2026-0218-asymetric-halo-cme-768x768.webp 768w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/lasco-c3-april-2-2026-0218-asymetric-halo-cme-600x600.webp 600w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/lasco-c3-april-2-2026-0218-asymetric-halo-cme-70x70.webp 70w\" data-sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 859px) 100vw, 859px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Image credit: ESA\/NASA LASCO C3<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" data-lazyloaded=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"957\" height=\"598\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/wsa-enlil-cme-forecast-april-4-2026-impact.webp\" alt=\"wsa enlil cme forecast april 4 2026 impact\" class=\"wp-image-246010\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/wsa-enlil-cme-forecast-april-4-2026-impact.webp 957w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/wsa-enlil-cme-forecast-april-4-2026-impact-300x187.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/wsa-enlil-cme-forecast-april-4-2026-impact-768x480.webp 768w\" data-sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 957px) 100vw, 957px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Image credit: SWPC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Forecast confidence in the exact arrival time remains limited due to gaps in coronagraph imagery, which constrain model initialization and propagation accuracy. Current estimates place the potential interaction window in the early UTC hours of April 4.<\/p>\n<p>If the CME\u2019s magnetic field contains sustained southward components upon arrival, minor geomagnetic storm conditions at G1 \u2013 Minor level are possible, with a chance of reaching G2 \u2013 Moderate levels under more efficient solar wind-magnetosphere coupling. The magnitude of the response will depend primarily on the orientation and persistence of the interplanetary magnetic field.<\/p>\n<p>Geomagnetic conditions on April 2 remain elevated under the combined influence of a coronal mass ejection that impacted Earth on March 30 and the ongoing onset of a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS).<\/p>\n<p>This pre-conditioned solar wind environment may enhance the magnetospheric response to even a glancing CME interaction, increasing variability in geomagnetic activity through April 4.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" data-lazyloaded=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"767\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rtsw-april-2-2026-1024x767.webp\" alt=\"rtsw april 2 2026\" class=\"wp-image-246005\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rtsw-april-2-2026-1024x767.webp 1024w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rtsw-april-2-2026-300x225.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rtsw-april-2-2026-768x575.webp 768w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/rtsw-april-2-2026.webp 1158w\" data-sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\"\/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>High-speed stream conditions are expected to persist through April 3, maintaining unsettled to active geomagnetic levels before the potential arrival of the April 1 CME. Intermittent enhancements in geomagnetic activity are expected, up to G2 \u2013 Moderate levels,  though no severe storm conditions are currently supported by available data.<\/p>\n<p>Auroral activity may expand to lower latitudes during periods of peak geomagnetic disturbance, while minor impacts to high-frequency radio communication and satellite-based navigation systems remain possible.<\/p>\n<p>No significant radiation storm conditions are expected from this event.<\/p>\n<p>References:<\/p>\n<p><sup>1<\/sup> Forecast Discussion \u2013 NOAA\/SWPC \u2013 Issued at 12:30 UTC on April 2, 2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/2026\/04\/02\/asymmetric-halo-cme-following-april-1-filament-eruption-forecast-deliver-glancing-blow-april-4\/?rand=772108\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A filament eruption spanning approximately 25\u00b0 occurred in Active Region 4403 at 23:28 UTC on April 1, in association with a C6.1 solar flare. The bulk of the ejecta propagated&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":801487,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-801486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-space-weather-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/801486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=801486"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/801486\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/801487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=801486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=801486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=801486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}