You deserve a daily dose of good news.<\/strong> For the latest in science and the night sky, click here to subscribe to our free daily newsletter.<\/p>\n Back on January 15, 2025, a Falcon 9 rocket launched two missions toward the moon: Blue Ghost and Hakuto-R. After the upper stage of the Falcon 9 rocket completed its boosting mission, it became just another piece of space junk. But now, says Bill Gray, a prolific tracker of near-Earth objects, the Falcon 9 is on a collision course with the moon.<\/p>\n Gray estimates the upper stage will hit the moon at 1:44 a.m. CDT (6:44 UTC) on August 5, 2026. As Gray said: <\/p>\n It doesn\u2019t present any danger to anyone, though it does highlight a certain carelessness about how leftover space hardware (space junk) is disposed of.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n The moon will be close to last quarter phase on August 5, 2026. By 1:44 a.m. CDT, those in the Central Time Zone will be able to see the moon, as it will have already risen in the east. Saturn will be nearby. Check Stellarium to see if the moon will be above the horizon at the time of impact if you\u2019re further west. The timing will favor people in the eastern half of the U.S. and Canada, plus much of South America.<\/p>\n So where will the rocket hit? Right now, Gray said he estimates the impact will occur near the edge, or limb, of the moon, close to the Einstein crater.<\/p>\n However, the chances are we won\u2019t be able to see the impact from Earth. Darn. Although the Einstein crater should (barely) be visible, the impact will likely be too small to see from so great a distance. However, after the impact, NASA\u2019s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter might be able to get an image of the resulting crater. It\u2019s happened before.<\/p>\n Back in 2022, Bill Gray also predicted a rocket impact with the moon. There was a little confusion about where the rocket came from, but the space junk did indeed hit the moon on March 4, 2022. And it left a mark, too. NASA\u2019s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter took an image of the aftermath.<\/p>\n Gray estimates the space junk will hit the moon at about 2.43 kilometers (1.51 miles) a second. That equates to 5,400 miles (8,700 kilometers) an hour. Because the moon has no real atmosphere, there will be nothing to slow it down.<\/p>\n There have been hundreds<\/em> of Falcon 9 launches. Usually, the spent rocket bodies orbit closely to Earth and eventually reenter our atmosphere. But some have gone on to orbit the sun. <\/p>\n This upper stage rocket has spent most of its time farther out than average, around the distance of the moon. Asteroid surveys pick up objects like this as they scan for dangerous space rocks. As Gray said: <\/p>\n The asteroid surveys would actually prefer not to observe space junk. Time spent observing junk is time not spent finding rocks. But both the rocks and the high-altitude space junk are slowly moving points of light in their images; they aren\u2019t easy to distinguish. So the asteroid surveys find this sort of junk whether they want to or not.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Gray provides software tools for astronomers that help them distinguish between space rocks and space junk. He also computes orbits for high-orbiting objects the military doesn\u2019t track. And he\u2019s been tracking this piece of space junk for months. He\u2019s known since September 2025 that the upper stage was likely on a collision course with the moon. And as he told EarthSky, he wasn\u2019t surprised: <\/p>\n I\u2019ve been checking for such possible impacts for about 20 years, ever since we started having many large bits of junk in orbits that could hit the moon. In a way, the only real surprise is that only two objects have hit the moon.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Over the past months he\u2019s continued to track the object. The reason it can change course a tiny bit is due to the gentle push of sunlight on objects. And that little bit of push is tricky to track. As Gray said: <\/p>\n As an object tumbles, it may catch more or less sunlight, and may reflect some of it sideways.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n But, as Gray told EarthSky: <\/p>\n I was reasonably sure a month or two later, but was in no rush to say anything about it. I figured I\u2019d wait until the impact location was well established. So it was something of a gradual process, with no \u2018Aha! It\u2019s gonna hit!\u2019 moment.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Gray told EarthSky: <\/p>\n I am an astronomer working under contract with both asteroid and artificial object observers. I started out doing this for natural objects (asteroids, comets, moons of other planets) about 30 years ago. A few years later, the asteroid surveys started to notice the occasional artificial object and asked me if I could find orbits for them as well.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n And as Gray explains on his website, various countries carefully track objects in low-Earth orbit because there are so many pieces of debris with risks of collision with military and science satellites. Farther from Earth, there is less tracking. Or, as Gray said:<\/p>\n Generally speaking, high-altitude junk goes ignored. (Except, it appears, by me.)<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Gray works with asteroid hunters. As he said:<\/p>\n My \u2018day work\u2019 is for the asteroid-hunting community \u2026 Most artificial objects are close to the Earth and move fast enough that there is no risk of mistaking them for an asteroid. But there are about a dozen \u2018high-flying\u2019 objects that can move slowly enough to look like a rock, at least briefly. For about 15 or 20 years now, I\u2019ve taken these observations and computed orbits. Then, when the surveys find such objects, they can fairly quickly say \u2018Never mind; it\u2019s not a rock; it\u2019s just another nuisance artificial object,\u2019 and go back to looking for actual rocks.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n Bottom line: A Falcon 9 rocket will hit the moon on August 5, 2026. How fast will it be going? Will we be able to see it? Answers here.<\/p>\n <\/div>\nFalcon rocket will hit the moon on August 5<\/h3>\n
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Will we be able to see the impact?<\/h3>\n
Previous lunar impact<\/h3>\n
![\"Gray](\"https:\/\/earthsky.org\/upl\/2026\/04\/mystery-rocket-impact-nasa-lunar-reconaissance-orbiter.png\")
A speeding object<\/h3>\n
Tracking the Falcon 9 upper stage<\/h3>\n
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Rocket will hit the moon despite tiny pushes from sunlight<\/h3>\n
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Not a lot of tracking farther from Earth<\/h3>\n
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