{"id":803209,"date":"2026-07-31T09:54:48","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T14:54:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=803209"},"modified":"2026-07-31T09:54:48","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T14:54:48","slug":"long-duration-m1-9-flare-produces-earth-directed-cme-g1-g2-geomagnetic-storm-conditions-forecast-for-august-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/?p=803209","title":{"rendered":"Long-duration M1.9 flare produces Earth-directed CME, G1-G2 geomagnetic storm conditions forecast for August 2"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Solar activity reached moderate levels on July 30 after Region 4492 (N15W82, Hax\/alpha) produced a long-duration M1.9\/Sf at 17L00 UTC. Coinciding with the flare was an approximately eight-degree-long filament eruption, centered near N20W67.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Additionally, two Type II radio sweeps were observed \u2014  the first at 16:27 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 853 km\/s, and the second at 16:45 UTC, estimated velocity 1 681 km\/s. Other radio events included a Type IV sweep at 16:31 UTC, and a 17-minute-long Tenflare (190 sfu) that peaked at 16:43 UTC.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The greater-than-10 MeV proton flux crossed the S1 \u2013 Minor solar radiation storm threshold at 18:45 UTC on July 30 and reached a peak of 18 pfu at 20:55 UTC. The flux fell below the S1 threshold by 00:30 UTC on July 31 and passed the threshold again at 13:27 UTC.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SWPC said the proton enhancements were likely associated with the M1.9 flare from Region 4492. The agency retained a chance of renewed S1 conditions on July 31 and August 1, while the greater-than-2 MeV electron flux was expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through August 2.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A partial-halo CME appeared in GOES CCOR2 coronagraph imagery beginning at 17:15 UTC, while STEREO COR2 imagery showed a full-halo signature beginning at 16:53 UTC. WSA-Enlil model runs placed a possible arrival at Earth early on August 2.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Image credit: SWPC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" data-lazyloaded=\"1\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"960\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/wsa-enlil-cme-forecast-for-august-2-2026.webp\" alt=\"wsa enlil cme forecast for august 2 2026\" class=\"wp-image-252074\" srcset=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/wsa-enlil-cme-forecast-for-august-2-2026.webp 960w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/wsa-enlil-cme-forecast-for-august-2-2026-300x188.webp 300w, https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/wsa-enlil-cme-forecast-for-august-2-2026-768x480.webp 768w\" data-sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Image credit: SWPC<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-video\"><video height=\"1080\" style=\"aspect-ratio: 1080 \/ 1080;\" width=\"1080\" controls=\"\" loop=\"\" muted=\"\" playsinline=\"\" class=\"perfmatters-lazy\" data-src=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/sdo_aia_0304_1080p-july-30-2026.webm\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Video credit: NASA SDO\/AIA 304<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels in 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today. Total magnetic field strength remained below 5 nT, solar wind speed was mainly between 300 and 330 km\/s, and the phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive solar sector.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SWPC said a diminishing chance of disturbed solar wind conditions remained on July 31 as CMEs launched on July 26 and 27 could still graze Earth. Another disturbance is possible on August 1 from a CME that left the Sun late on July 27, combined with weak influence from a coronal hole high speed stream. A more pronounced enhancement in solar wind parameters is likely early on August 2 as the July 30 CME passes by Earth.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are forecast through August 1, with isolated active periods possible under the combined influence of a weak positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream and glancing or relatively weak effects from the July 26 and 27 CMEs.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">SWPC expects G1-G2 geomagnetic storm levels on August 2 due to the anticipated arrival of the July 30 CME. Under G2 geomagnetic storm conditions, high-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, while prolonged storming can affect transformers.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Spacecraft operators may need to make orientation corrections, and increased drag can affect satellites in low Earth orbit. High-frequency radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora may become visible as far south as New York and Idaho in the United States under favorable conditions.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Solar activity is expected to remain low through August 2, with a chance of M-class flares and associated R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">References:<\/p>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><sup>1<\/sup> Forecast Discussion \u2013 NOAA\/SWPC \u2013 Issued at 12:30 UTC on July 31, 2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/watchers.news\/2026\/07\/31\/long-duration-m1-9-flare-produces-earth-directed-cme-g1-g2-geomagnetic-storm-conditions-forecast-for-august-2\/?rand=772108\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Solar activity reached moderate levels on July 30 after Region 4492 (N15W82, Hax\/alpha) produced a long-duration M1.9\/Sf at 17L00 UTC. Coinciding with the flare was an approximately eight-degree-long filament eruption,&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":803210,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-803209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-space-weather-reports"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/803209","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=803209"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/803209\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/803210"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=803209"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=803209"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/spaceweekly.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=803209"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}