A strong M6.9 solar flare erupted from Active Region 4513 near the center of the visible solar disk at 10:02 UTC on August 25, 2026, causing an R2 \u2013 Moderate radio blackout. NOAA\u2019s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) said the associated CME and a second CME linked to a C4.7 flare and filament eruption later that day contained Earth-directed components, prompting a G2 \u2013 Moderate Geomagnetic Storm Watch for August 28. A G1 \u2013 Minor watch is in effect for August 27 due to an approaching coronal-hole high-speed stream.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n Solar activity reached moderate levels in 24 hours to 12:30 UTC on August 26, with Region 4513 (\u2018beta-gamma-delta\u2019) producing four M-class flares. The sequence included an M1.9 flare at 01:26 UTC, M1.0 at 04:02 UTC, M1.8 at 06:40 UTC, and the M6.9\/1b event at 10:02 UTC.<\/p>\n The M6.9 flare was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep with an estimated velocity of 603 km\/s (375 miles\/s), a 10.7-cm radio burst of 160 sfu, and a coronal mass ejection first observed by the LASCO\/C2 coronagraph at about 11:00 UTC. SWPC subsequently determined that the CME contained an Earth-directed component.<\/p>\n A C4.7\/Sf flare at 12:58 UTC was associated with a filament eruption visible in coronagraph imagery after 13:45 UTC. SWPC reported that the CMEs associated with the M6.9 and C4.7 events both contained Earth-directed components and were anticipated to affect geospace on August 28.<\/p>\n A G1 \u2013 Minor Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for August 27 for the expected onset of a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream, and a G2 \u2013 Moderate watch for August 28 for the anticipated arrival of the August 25 CMEs.<\/p>\n SWPC expects the coronal hole high speed stream to begin affecting Earth around midday August 27, with solar-wind speeds increasing to about 600 km\/s, followed by additional disturbances associated with the approaching CMEs on August 28.<\/p>\n The center forecasts a 55% probability of R1\u2013R2 radio blackouts and a 15% probability of R3 or greater activity on each day from August 26 through August 28, based on the flare potential of Region 4513.<\/p>\n The greater-than-10 MeV proton flux remained below the S1 \u2013 Minor solar radiation storm threshold over the past 24 hours. SWPC gives a 10% probability of an S1 or greater solar radiation storm on each day through August 28, while continued activity from Region 4513 remains under observation.<\/p>\n
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