A lightning-based nowcast-warning approach to predict short-duration rainfall

Previous studies have indicated a worldwide increasing trend of intense precipitation events under the influence of global warming. Heavy precipitation events increase the risk of flooding, exerting devastating effects on human society and the environment, especially for metropolises with dense populations. As one of the largest cities in the world, Beijing is highly vulnerable to increasingly frequent and intense precipitation events, such as the torrential rain event on 21 July 2012, when the city encountered its heaviest rainfall in the past few decades with a record-breaking amount of 460 mm in 18 hours. Scientists have found that short-duration rainfall (SDR) events (a rainfall event of 6 hours or less in duration) dominate the total rainfall amount over Beijing in summer, and the rainfall amount of SDR events has increased significantly in recent decades. Thus, it is of great significance to provide accurate predictions of SDR events—something that remains a considerable challenge for scientists and forecasters.