The favorites for this year’s World Cup title are Brazil and Germany. The two teams are almost on a par with their chances of winning, as statisticians around Achim Zeileis from the University of Innsbruck show. With their statistical model based on bookmakers’ odds, the researchers have successfully predicted several tournaments in the past, among them the correct world champion Spain in the 2010 FIFA World Cup and three out of four semi-finalists in the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil.