A new research paper by Dr. Clay Trauernicht is the first study to link climate change to increasing wildfire probability in Hawai’i, and one of the few that looks at this question for tropical regions more broadly. “Fire in tropical ecosystems is driven by cycles of wet and dry periods, which makes it harder to pin to climate change than in temperate areas where longer summertime ‘fire seasons’ provide a clearer signal,” said Trauernicht, assistant specialist in the department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management in the College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resources. Fires pose serious threats to island communities and watersheds, as well as nearshore reefs due to the erosion that often follows when an area is burned. This paper demonstrates that drying and warming trends on Hawai’i Island will cause areas of highest wildfire probability to shift upwards in elevation. This shift has critical implications for protecting upland natural resources and can help identify where fire risk mitigation should be prioritized in coming decades.