The future of cod stocks in the North Sea and the Barents Sea may be much easier to predict than before. This is the result of an international research project led by the Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon and its Institute of Coastal Systems—Analysis and Modeling. For the first time, the team has succeeded in predicting the development of stocks for ten years in advance, taking into account both changes due to climate and fishing. Traditionally, fisheries experts provide catch recommendations for about a year in advance, on the basis of which fishing quotas are negotiated and set internationally. This involves first estimating the size of current cod stocks and then calculating how much cod can be caught in the coming year without endangering the stocks as well as harvesting the stock optimally. The climatic change, long-term changes in water temperature, circulation and mixing, which have a decisive influence on how well cod reproduce, are not included in this prediction, so that the development of stocks can only be predicted in the short term.
Click here for original story, Predicting the future of cod: Scientists develop new fisheries management planning tool
Source: Phys.org