Long-duration X1.3 solar flare erupts from geoeffective region

A major, long-duration solar flare measuring X1.3 erupted around Active Region 3777 / 3774 at 19:35 UTC on August 8, 2024. The event started at 19:01 and ended at 19:57 UTC.

A Type II Radio Emission, with an estimated velocity of 1 026 km/s, was registered at 19:29 UTC, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with the flare event.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over North America and the Pacific Ocean at the time of the flare.

Due to the location of the responsible region, near the center of the disk, an Earth-directed CME is probable. However, we’ll have to wait for updated coronagraph imagery to confirm.

Several CMEs were observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery in 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today. While the SE directed CME, observed beginning at 03:24 UTC on July 7, is not expected to be geoeffective, the CME associated with the M4.5 flare from Region 3774 and the CME associated with the M5.0 flare from Region 3777 were modeled and both show CME arrival late August 9 through early August 10.

Two coronal holes that are moving into the western hemisphere are predicted to become geoeffective on August 8 and 9, providing a weak enhancement.

Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced with the arrival of the CMEs associated with the M4.5 and M5.0 flares late on August 9 and 10. As a result, a G2 – Moderate Watch has been issued for these days. Model guidance suggests a quick arrival during the overnight hours (UTC time) but the exact timing is uncertain.

References:

¹ Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 12:30 UTC on August 8, 2024

Featured image: X1.3 solar flare August 8, 2024. Credit: NASA SDO/AIA 131, Helioviewer, The Watchers