A long-duration M7.6 solar flare erupted from Active Region 3852 on September 30, 2024.
There were no radio signatures associated with this event that would suggest a CME was produced. However, the region has a ‘Beta-Gamma-Delta’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more strong to major eruptions. It’s now moving toward the center of the solar disk, so Earth-directed CMEs from it become a possibility.
“The region upgraded its Zurich classification as its length has increased, it has also seen growth in the number of interior spots, a maturing of the leader penumbra, and is starting to take on an overall circular structure – regions that exhibit this structure tend to be higher, stronger flare producers,” SWPC forecasters said at 00:30 UTC on October 1.
Additionally, a new region — Region 3844 — appeared at roughly 23:00 on September 29 and continued to experience growth. Other regions that exhibited growth were Region 3841 (beta) and Region 3843 (beta). All of the other regions experienced gradual decay.
Solar activity is expected to be low with 50% chances for M-class (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight chance for X-class (R3-Strong) flares (10%) through October 3.
With no Earth-directed CMEs in the forecast and negative polarity coronal hole 76 — the source of recent enhancement in solar wind parameters, rotating off the western limb, the geomagnetic field is expected to remain at Quiet conditions through October 3.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – SWPC – Issued at 00:30 UTC on October 1, 2024