A strong solar radiation storm is currently underway following a major X1.8 solar flare at 01:56 UTC on October 9, 2024.
Proton flux counts began rapidly increasing after the flare, reaching the S1 – Minor solar radiation storm threshold at around 04:40 UTC. Levels reached S2 – Moderate by 07:30 UTC and S3 – Strong by 12:30 UTC.
Potential impacts include increased radiation exposure for passengers and crew on high-altitude, high-latitude flights, as well as elevated radiation risks for astronauts conducting extra-vehicular activities.
Spacecraft may experience single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reductions in solar panel efficiency.
Additionally, polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation could be degraded or experience episodic blackouts.
The storm was produced by a significant, long-duration solar flare classified as X1.8 that erupted from geoeffective Active Region 3848 at 01:56 UTC on October 9. The flare produced a fast-moving coronal mass ejection (CME), expected to impact Earth between late October 10 and early October 11.
As a result, a G4 – Severe or Greater Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for October 10 and 11.
Potential impacts of G4 – Severe geomagnetic storms are primarily expected poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Power grids may experience widespread voltage control issues, and protective systems could mistakenly trip key assets, while induced pipeline currents may intensify.
Spacecraft systems could face surface charging, increased drag on low Earth orbit satellites, and issues with tracking and orientation. Satellite navigation (GPS) may be degraded or inoperable for hours, and HF (high frequency) radio propagation could be sporadic or blacked out. Auroras may be visible as far south as Alabama and northern California.
