In April 2026, NASA will launch a crew of four as part of the Artemis II mission, a circumlunar flight that will last 10 days. This mission will set the stage for Artemis III, the long-awaited return to the Moon, currently scheduled for mid-2027. With the deployment of the Lunar Gateway (also scheduled for 2027), NASA intends to conduct regular missions to the Moon (once a year). With the help of international and commercial partners, NASA then hopes to build a lunar base and the related infrastructure that will allow for a “sustained program of lunar exploration and development.”
However, the current schedule is the result of multiple delays, budget restrictions, and issues with the various mission elements. Given the uncertain nature of politics in the U.S. right now, there are concerns that further delays may be inevitable. Meanwhile, China and its partners continue to push ahead with their plans to create a base in the South Pole-Aitken Basin – the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) – that will rival NASA’s Artemis Program. Understandably, this situation has raised concerns about who will send crewed missions to the Moon and establish a base there first.
Back to the Moon to Stay!
For NASA, the long-awaited return to the Moon began two decades ago with the passage of the NASA Authorization Act of 2005. In addition to allocating funds for robotic space exploration and Earth Observation programs, the Act also instructed the agency to “establish a program to develop a sustained human presence on the Moon, including a robust precursor program, to promote exploration, science, commerce, and United States preeminence in space, and as a stepping-stone to future exploration of Mars and other destinations.”
This led to the creation of the Constellation Program, which would see astronauts return to the Moon for the first time since the Apollo 17 mission in 1972. Since then, NASA’s plans have evolved due to unforeseen circumstances like the Great Recession (2007-2009) and budget shortfalls. By 2010, NASA came back with a new plan known as the Moon to Mars mission architecture, which called for the development of the next-generation Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion spacecraft.
By 2017, the Artemis Program was inaugurated with the long-term goal of creating a “sustained program of lunar exploration and development.” This plan currently includes returning astronauts to the lunar surface by 2028, followed by the creation of a permanent base around the lunar south pole. Since then, they have enlisted the help of several space agencies and national governments through the Artemis Accords and multiple commercial partners through the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) and Human Landing System (HLS) programs to realize this goal.
However, in 2021, China and Roscosmos declared a joint plan to establish their own permanent base in the Moon’s south pole region, the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS). The program’s timetable calls for Russian cosmonauts and Chinese taikonauts to land on the Moon for the first time by 2030. In 2023, China announced this would consist of two Long March 10 rockets launching the Mengzhou spacecraft and the Lanyue lunar lander, the former carrying two taikonauts and the latter ferrying them to the surface and back.
In 2012, NASA proposed a cislunar station to facilitate its “Moon to Mars” mission architecture, dubbed the Deep Space Habitat. By 2018, the design and the program had matured considerably and was renamed Lunar Gateway. This station is now a multinational collaborative project between NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), the Canadian Space Agency (CSA), and the UAE’s Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Centre (MBRSC).
According to the current design, this station will consist of the “core elements”: the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO), which will launch no sooner than 2027. Further modules will include the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications (ESPRIT), the Lunar International Habitation Module (Lunar I-HAB Module), the Canadarm3 robotic manipulator arms, and the Crew and Science Airlock Module.
By 2020, the surface elements of the Artemis Program, known as the Artemis Base Camp, were announced. This camp was described in detail as part of NASA’s Lunar Surface Sustainability Concept. The plan includes three core elements that would enable a sustained lunar presence, emphasizing mobility and the ability to conduct extensive science operations.
- A Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) that will transport crewmembers around the landing zone
- A pressurized Habitable Mobility Platform (HMP) that will allow crews to take trips across the lunar surface for up to 45 days
- A lunar Foundation Surface Habitat (FSH) that will house as many as four crew members on shorter surface stays
The Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion spacecraft are vital to this program, which NASA has been developing since 2011. In 2018, then-Administrator Jim Bridenstine and VP Mike Pence directed NASA to expedite the timetable so astronauts would land on the Moon by 2024. This created a problem since the Lunar Gateway would not be ready in time, leading to the Human Landing Systems (HLS) contract. The resulting concepts include the Starship HLS developed by SpaceX and the Blue Moon Mk. 2 developed by Blue Origin.
In June 2021, the China National Space Agency (CNSA) announced they had partnered with the Russian State Space Corporation (Roscosmos). The detailed plan was made public with the release of the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) Guide for Partnership, which explained how international partners could join. According to the design, five facilities will make up the ILRS. They include:
- Cislunar Transportation Facility (CLF): An orbital station that mirrors the purpose of the Lunar Gateway.
- Telemetry, Tracking, and Command (TT&C): An energy supply network, a thermal management system, and support modules.
- Lunar Transportation and Operation Facility (LTOF): A storage facility where lunar vehicles will be stowed and maintained when not in use.
- Lunar Scientific Facility: A support lunar science operations on the surface, in-orbit, or in deep space.
- Ground Support and Application Facility (GSAF): An operational support facility for communications and missions and a data center for lunar and deep-space missions.
The timeline for the base’s construction is divided into three phases. Phase I—Reconnaissance, which began in 2021 and will last until the end of 2025, consists of exploring the South Pole-Aitken Basin and sample return missions by the Chang’e missions to scout for potential ILRS sites and verify technologies that will allow for soft landings in the southern polar region. This phase has involved multiple launches using China’s Long March 3B (CZ-3B) and Long March 5 (CZ-5), and the Russian Soyuz-2 rocket.
Phase II—Construction is planned to last from 2025 to 2030. The goals of this phase include verifying technologies related to the ILRS command center, analyzing the Chang’e samples to narrow the selection of potential sites, and delivering cargo to build the base. Other objectives will include technologies related to ISRU, 3D printing, and others necessary for the construction of the ILRS. For Phase II and III, China and Russia would begin relying on the Long March 9, Long March 10, and the Angara 5M heavy launch vehicles.
Phase III – Utilization, which will run from 2030 to 2035, will involve the completion of all in-orbit and surface facilities that provide energy, communication, research, exploration, and transport services. This phase will consist of five IRLS missions to establish the base architecture:
- IRLS-1 – establishment of the command center, basic energy, and telecommunications facilities.
- IRLS-2 – establishment of lunar research exploration facilities (sample collection, lunar physics, geology, lava tubes).
- IRLS-3 – establishment of lunar ISRU technology verification facilities.
- IRLS-4 – verification of general technologies like biomedical experiments, sample collection, and return.
- IRLS-5 – establishment of lunar-based astronomy and Earth observation facilities.
Long before the Artemis Program was first announced, NASA was experiencing significant delays with the development of mission-critical elements. This includes the SLS, which began development in 2011 with a government-mandated launch set for late 2016. However, cost overruns, management issues, and other challenges delayed this for nearly six years. This also caused delays in the development of the Orion spacecraft, which performed its first successful test flight on December 5th, 2014. The next flight, Artemis I, did not occur until almost eight years later.
On November 16th, 2022, the SLS launched for the first time, sending the Artemis I spacecraft (without crew) on a circumlunar flight. This was to be followed by Artemis II, a crewed circumlunar flight, in 2023 and Artemis III in 2024. In November 2021, due to legal challenges over the HLS contract, NASA declared that Artemis III‘s launch date would be pushed until 2025. On January 2024, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that Artemis II and III would launch no sooner than September 2025 and 2026.
However, by the end of the year, Nelson announced that these missions would be delayed due to the months of engineering investigations into issues with the life support system and heat shield, but should occur no later than April 2026 and mid-2027. There have also been delays on SpaceX’s end. While the company has made several impressive strides with the launch and recovery of the Starship, the first successful orbital test flight took place on June 6th, 2024 – a year after its first crewed launch was scheduled to take place (the dearMoon project) and the same year it was to assist the Artemis III mission.
The complex architecture for that mission also involves orbital refueling, which SpaceX anticipates hopes to test sometime this year. However, concerns have been raised about the number of refuelings needed to allow the Starship to make a Trans-Lunar Injection (TLI) maneuver. At present, the Artemis III and IV missions will involve a Starship HLS docking with a refueling facility in orbit before making a TLI. This facility will be serviced by multiple Starship propellant tankers, but estimates vary on how many launches will be needed to refuel the HLS fully.
Whereas Musk has previously stated that it could be between 4 and 8, others estimate that 16 launches will be needed to fuel a single Starship HLS. SpaceX also hopes to conduct 25 launches with the Starship in 2025, including an orbital refueling followed by an uncrewed TLI and lunar landing in preparation for Artemis III. However, due to the recent loss of a Starship during the most recent flight (January 16th, 2025) and the resulting FAA penalties, these missions may not occur before the year’s end.
Keith Cowing, an astrobiologist and former rocket scientist, is currently the editor of the publications NASA Watch and Astrobiology. As he summarized to Universe Today via messenger:
“The main problem with Artemis as a whole has been poor cost projections, inadequate cost monitoring, bad contract oversight, and over-optimistic schedules that are driven by the need to look like you are making good progress. Any one of these can cause cost overruns and schedule delays. When you have all of them happening, you can have substantial problems.
“The main problems have had to do with the ground infrastructure for launch, issues with the Orion spacecraft, and the impact of earlier cost saving attempts. The most unusual of which was a decision to re-use the avionics from Artemis II Orion in the Artemis III Orion instead of simply building one set of avionics for each. It takes a lot of time to remove things, re-install them, and re-certify them for flight.”
Is Roscomos Out?
However, Roscosmos has also suffered serious setbacks due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This includes Roscosmos terminating its involvement in the International Space Station (ISS) and the European Space Agency (ESA) suspending cooperation with Roscosmos for the ExoMars rover mission. Roscosmos has also seen a significant drop in revenue since 2022, reporting financial losses of 180 billion rubles ($2.1 billion) in February 2024 due to canceled contracts.
In addition, Roscosmos has experienced a significant drop in launches per year, a trend that began with the annexation of Crimea in 2014. This includes missions related to the ILRS, like the Luna-25 mission. After a two-year delay, the mission was lost when it crashed on the lunar surface in August 2023. This mission and the subsequent launch of Luna-26 and Luna-27, originally scheduled for 2024 and August 2025 (respectively), were a key part of Phase I of the IRLS’ development.
Since the loss of Luna-25, these missions have been delayed until 2027 and 2028. The Luna-28 mission, meant to play an important role in Phase II of the ILRS’ development, has also been pushed back to 2030. In addition, these three missions, and several payload deliveries in Phase II and III are dependent on Russia’s Angara A5 rocket. The design of this heavy-lift rocket was formalized in 2004, and the first test flight occurred in December 2014, but the next flight did not occur for another six years (December 2020).
The third followed in December 2021, which failed to deliver its payload to the intended orbit. The Angara 5M, unveiled in 2017 to address problems with earlier models, made its maiden flight in April 2024. While multiple launches are scheduled between 2025 and 2030s, none are associated with the Luna program or the ILRS. Said Cowing:
“Russia is cash-strapped and is still isolated from most of the world’s economic systems. In addition, their space sector was already suffering from draconian budget cuts, over-promising things that never happened, and increasingly shoddy workmanship from their contractors. The manufacturing problems with a Soyuz capsule and the malfunction of thrusters in the Nauka module, plus the aging of their part of the ISS, simply serve to exacerbate these challenges further.
Despite these setbacks, China continues to pursue the ILRS and there is little doubt that China will be able to continue without Russian involvement. The success of the Chang’e program to date and their progress with the Long March 9 (CZ-9) is certainly an indication of that.
“China, on the other hand, has a rather robust human spaceflight program of its own, including a large space station,” added Cowing. “They also have an ambitious lunar program that has chalked off one success after another. And their robotic and space station programs are all focused on methodically developing the ability to send their astronauts to the Moon. They really do not need the Russians, and the Russians cannot afford to do much anyway.”
As it stands, China plans to send the first taikonauts to the Moon in 2030, and they appear to be on track to achieve that. This includes the first launch of the Long March 10, slated for 2026, and the successful test of the Mengzhou spacecraft in 2020. In April 2024, the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) announced that the initial development of the Lanyue lander was complete. This was followed by an announcement in October that a separation test for the lander and its propulsion stage had been carried out. However, unforeseen delays may occur that could cause the target date to be pushed.
Meanwhile, NASA has experienced multiple delays and there are still logistical questions that need to be worked out with the Starship HLS. However, NASA and its commercial partners still have the lead regarding the major mission elements. For instance, they have already built and validated the SLS and Orion spacecraft, while SpaceX has successfully completed multiple orbital flights with the Starship. While the target date of mid-2027 may slip further, they could still make their original (pre-Artemis) target date of 2028.
What’s more, NASA has the benefit of experience, having already sent six missions and 12 astronauts to the Moon. In addition, NASA has launched over 1,000 uncrewed and 250 crewed missions into Earth orbit or beyond since its inception in 1958, plus thousands more through its commercial programs. As of January 23rd, 2025, China has conducted 558 launches using the Long March family of rockets and trails the U.S. significantly in terms of annual launches. As the saying goes, “There’s no substitute for experience.”
So… will China send its first taikonauts to the Moon before NASA can make its long-awaited return? In Cowing’s estimation, the chance of that happening is “doubtful.” However, there is little doubt that their robust space program will be a force to be reckoned with in the coming decades, be it in orbit, on the Moon, and (in all likelihood) on Mars!