Abstract: Most space-bound hardware needs to be designed to withstand space weather events to some degree. Long-term predictability of space weather events, such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections, are still a matter of theory so designers should assume a worst case event for their specific environment. In our analysis, we show preliminary results of the probability of encountering a false/true go/no-go based on a threshold launch and design proton environment. The goal in choosing a threshold l…