Abstract: MSFC ER41 was tasked with assessing the potential failure scenarios capabilities in order to determine whether particular failure causes could have resulted in the observed telemetry information and what the worst case results of these particular failures could be. A mass accurate CAD model was developed by the analyst using existing data regarding the Progress spacecraft and publically available information regarding the 3rdstage of the Soyuz rocket. This model was used as a basis for the fo…