Abstract: Solar ionizing radiation critically depends on the level of the Sun’s magnetic activity. For robust physics-based forecasts, we employ the procedure of data assimilation, which combines theoretical modeling and observational data such that uncertainties in both the model and the observations are taken into account. Currently we are working in two major directions: 1) development of a new long-term forecast procedure on time-scales of the 11-year solar cycle, using a 2-dimensional mean-field d…