Assessment and Validation of Collision “Consequence” Method of Assessing Orbital Regime Risk Posed by Potential Satellite Conjunctions

Abstract: Collision risk management theory requires a thorough assessment of both the likelihood and consequence of potential collision events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing the likelihood of collision but neglects to account for the consequences of a given collision. While any collision may compromise the operational survival of a spacecraft, the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbi…