Forecasting elections is a high-stakes problem. Politicians and voters alike are often desperate to know the outcome of a close race, but providing them with incomplete or inaccurate predictions can be misleading. And election forecasting is already an innately challenging endeavor—the modeling process is rife with uncertainty, incomplete information, and subjective choices, all of which must be deftly handled. Political pundits and researchers have implemented a number of successful approaches for forecasting election outcomes, with varying degrees of transparency and complexity. However, election forecasts can be difficult to interpret and may leave many questions unanswered after close races unfold.
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Source: Phys.org