Gurbir Singh: India went to Mars in 2013 because there was a Chinese spacecraft on board the Fobos-Grunt spacecraft launched by Russia in 2011. That spacecraft never left Earth orbit and failed. India realized that there would be an opportunity to launch a small mission to Mars in 2013, and get there before China.
The spacecraft only had five instruments, which was very stark. A few years after the ISRO chairman had served his time and wrote a book, he admitted that the whole reason why India went to Mars was because China failed, and the whole intention was to be able to say that India got to Mars before China.
We saw this behavior during the Cold War with Sputnik, Gagarin, and Valentina Tereshkova. Every country’s trying to wave a flag and say, “we did this.” There’s nothing politicians like more than that.
Casey Dreier: Let’s talk about the Modi government’s relationship to space. Would you characterize that as a natural extension of the previous government’s approach to ISRO and space, or is there something different in their approach and embrace of ISRO and its ambitions?
Gurbir Singh: India has always treated ISRO as the goose that lays the golden eggs. It’s something all political parties can benefit from, because apart from the fact that it allows the incumbent prime minister to wave India’s flag at every ISRO success, ISRO actually is one of the more successful and competent departments of the government. It’s traditionally been supported throughout India’s history, regardless of the government.
In prime minister Modi’s case, during the Chandrayaan-3 touchdown, he was in a live stream split screen. You could see the lander coming into land, and Modi was there waving a small Indian flag. Immediately after the soft landing of Chandrayaan-3, chairman Somanath got onto the pedestal and said, “India is on the Moon.” And then he handed the microphone to the prime minister. I hadn’t appreciated what an opportunity he would have to address an international audience. He made a 10-minute speech and said all the things that any politician would say.
Casey Dreier: You wrote in your 2017 book that the Modi government is a dynamic government with a nationalist and aggressive economic agenda, and it’s been positioning itself to use the Indian space program as an instrument for regional influence. Has that played out in the way that you thought it would?
Gurbir Singh: The desire for India to be a regional superpower hasn’t quite worked out, mainly because India hoped to capture the launch market for nearby countries: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. But the growth in the international commercial space sector has meant that it’s actually quite practical and cost-effective for these countries not to go to the nearest provider, India.
India’s cadence of launches is still very low. Its highest launch rate to Earth orbit or beyond has been seven launches in a year. This year alone, China has already achieved 47, and the U.S. more than 100. I think this has been driving the political changes that’s opened up the commercial space sector in India.
The main thing that’s been preoccupying ISRO is the Gaganyaan program. India has been developing a launch abort system, parachutes, and capsule recovery techniques. The recent signing of the Artemis Accords and the agreement to have an Indian astronaut go to the International Space Station with NASA will help accelerate the Gaganyaan program. There will be various deals of technology transfer and systems components being sold to India as a result of the collaborative arrangements that are now in place.
Casey Dreier: If the U.S. is increasingly seeing China as a competitive nation in space, then it starts to become a U.S. interest to support India as a backstop against regional influence from China.
Gurbir Singh: That’s spot on, and really the reason why India signed the Artemis Accords.
The Artemis Accords would not have been as significant or profound if the International Lunar Research Station did not exist. The International Lunar Research Station is essentially an organization that China and Russia established, but now really China’s running with it. The U.S. offered India a really good deal because they didn’t want India to go to the International Lunar Research Station.
I think the main reason why India signed is because as part of this agreement, your president offered the Indian prime minister to come speak to a joint assembly of Congress. Any prime minister, especially one who has an election coming up next year, is not going to let that go. He had, I think, a four-day state visit to the U.S. and it’s that package deal that made India sign the Artemis Accords.
Casey Dreier: In the past few years, ISRO has opened up to commercial space flight, started a serious effort for human spaceflight, announced an Indian space station, and is aiming for the Moon by 2040. This strikes me as a profound transformation of the role ISRO is going to play in Indian geopolitics.
It seems like the organization has a huge amount of capability to do things, but it’s also struggling with capacity. Does that strike you as the biggest challenge facing ISRO and the Indian space community?
Gurbir Singh: I think a lack of capacity has been something that many previous ISRO chairs have identified, and that’s been the motivating factor for opening up the private space sector.
As a result of new space policies, about 200 startup space companies are now operating in India. I think this is where the future of Indian space activities lies: with ISRO helping startups and being supported by startups.
Casey Dreier: I saw that ISRO is facing a budget cut from the Modi government despite all these new ambitions being proposed. What does that tell you about the political commitment to the Indian space program?
Gurbir Singh: Generally, over the last decade or so, ISRO’s budget has been increasing. It’s at about one-and-a-quarter to one-and-a-half billion U.S. dollars annually. The Gaganyaan program itself, just as a standalone, multi-year program, has been awarded about one billion U.S. dollars. And there was some unspent budget from 2020 and 2021, when not much happened. The Indian economy is doing really well relative to many other Western countries. Economic growth this coming year should lead to a budget increase in the next year.
Casey Dreier: Gurbir Singh is the author of The Indian Space Programme, a book that I really enjoyed and highly recommend to anyone fascinated by this topic. Gurbir, how can people find you online?
Gurbir Singh: The web address for me is gurbir.co.uk, and if anybody’s interested in my podcast, I do that on astrotalkuk.org.
Casey Dreier: Thank you so much for being here this month. I hope to have you back in the future.
Gurbir Singh: Great talking to you.
Listen to the full interview on Planetary Radio: Space Policy Edition.