Two incoming CMEs to combine with CH HSS and produce G1 – Minor geomagnetic storming

A G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for April 14 and 15, 2024 due to two incoming coronal mass ejections (CMEs) — launched on April 11 and 12, combined with coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by a filament eruption near N20E02 that began at 06:00 UTC on April 11 is forecast to make a glancing blow arrival before midday on April 14.

Additionally, a 17-degree long filament, centered near S16W14, began to erupt at about 00:20 UTC on April 12, producing a faint, halo CME, with arrival expected late on April 14.

Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced on April 14 and continue through April 15 due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from April 11 and 12, in addition to continued CH HSS influences, SWPC forecasters noted at 00:30 UTC today, April 14.

As a result, unsettled to active geomagnetic field levels are expected, with periods of G1 – Minor storming likely, beginning late on April 14 and continuing through April 15.

G1 – Minor geomagnetic storm potential impacts (area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude):

Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft – Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., the northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Solar activity was at moderate to high levels since the M5.4 solar flare at 17:06 UTC on April 11, with two more M-class events — the first at 05:02 UTC on April 13 (M2.4 from Active Region 3637) and at 02:32 UTC on April 14 (M4.3 from Active Region 3637).

There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the Sun. Old regions 3619, 3617, and 3625 are expected to return into view over the next 2 days.

The SWPC forecasts a 35% chance of M-class solar flares and a 5% chance of X-class flares through April 16.

Featured image credit: NOAA/SWPC, The Watchers