At least 5 CMEs heading toward Earth, G3 – Strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch in effect for May 11

At least five coronal mass ejections (CMEs) produced over the past 3 days are heading toward Earth. The first impact is expected on May 9 and the following over the next 3 – 4 days.

• At least 5 CMEs will impact Earth from May 9 – 13
• G3 – Strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for May 11
• An X2.2 solar flare erupted during the writing of this report. A strong CME was produced and is likely Earth-directed

“It’s a solar storm train! We now have FIVE storms headed towards Earth,” said space weather physicist, Dr. Tamitha Skov on May 9.

“Storms 2, 3, and 5 will be direct hits as seen in the coronagraph imagery. Impacts start around midday May 10 and will continue through late May 12 at least. G3-level conditions and extended aurora aurora is possible.”

According to SWPC forecasters, unsettled to active geomagnetic field conditions are possible mid to late (UTC) May 9 as glancing effects from a CME produced on May 6 are expected to start influencing Earth.

By late May 10, two halo CMEs from May 8 are anticipated to arrive at Earth, increasing the geomagnetic response to G1 – Minor storm levels.

Early on May 11, conditions are likely to reach G2 – Moderate storm levels, with a chance for G3 – Strong levels, as the bulk of the CME moves past Earth.

“While confidence in timing is fairly high, confidence in magnitude/strength of the geomagnetic response to the CME arrival is low to moderate,” SWPC forecasters said at 00:30 UTC on May 9.

The Sun has been extremely active since the beginning of the month, producing more than 50 M-class flares — some of them very close to X-class, and 8 X-class flares —the strongest of which was X4.5 on May 6.

The latest was X2.2 at 09:13 UTC on May 9 from Region 3664. This event was associated with a Type IV and Type II Radio Emission (with an estimated velocity of 1 004 km/s) — suggesting a strong CME was produced. LASCO coronagraph imagery is still not available for this event, but there is a very good chance this one will have parts of it heading our way, too.

Solar activity is expected to persist at high to very high levels through May 11, with M-class flares (95%) expected and X-class flares (60%) likely, due to the continued flare potential of Region 3663 and especially Region 3664 (beta-gamma-delta).

Featured image credit: NASA/ESA LASCO, Helioviewer, The Watchers. Acquired at 10:58 UTC on May 8, 2024