X1.4 solar flare erupts from Region 3697

A strong solar flare measuring X1.4 erupted from Region 3697 (ex 3664) at 08:48 UTC on June 1, 2024. The event started at 08:26 and ended at 08:58 UTC.

There were no radio signatures detected that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced during this event.

A 10cm Radio Burst (tenflare) with a peak flux of 210 sfu was detected from 08:45 to 08:46 UTC. This indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. It can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and most of Asia at the time of the flare.

The region has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic configuration and is capable of producing more strong to major eruptions on the Sun.

This is the third X-class solar flare since May 29. The previous two were an impulsive X1.1 on May 31 and a long-duration X1.4 on May 29.

Today’s X1.4 is also the 49^th X-class solar flare of the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25). According to X-class flare list compiled by Kevin VE3EN of SolarHam.com, it marks a tie with the previous cycle for the total number of X-class flares produced.

This cycle’s peak is expected in June 2025.

The mean forecast for the current solar cycle is given by the red line in graphs below. This is based on an international panel that was convened in 2019 for this purpose. In February 2023 the plot was modified to show the full range of the 2019 Panel prediction as the gray shaded region (similarly for the F10.7 cm plot). This takes into account expected uncertainties in the cycle start time and amplitude.

In both plots, the black line represents the monthly averaged data and the purple line represents a 13-month weighted, smoothed version of the monthly averaged data.

Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through June 3, with occasional M-class flares (75%) and a chance for isolated X-class flares (35%).

Featured image: X1.4 solar flare June 1, 2024. Credit: NASA/SWPC AIA 131