What to watch for in a second Trump…


The Musk factor

As Elon Musk aligned himself with Trump on the campaign trail, Trump started to talk more about Mars. “Elon, get those rocket ships going, because we want to reach Mars before the end of my term,” he said in September of 2024.

Close observers of Trump during his first term will note that whenever the President spoke extemporaneously about space exploration, he spoke about sending humans to Mars, even as his administration was establishing the Artemis lunar program. He appears to have a natural affinity for the idea and understands the potent symbolism of securing the achievement during his administration.

Elon Musk is in a unique position to propose and implement a national policy committing the U.S. to a crash humans-to-Mars program. After all, Starship is a Mars ship.

How this would work is open to various pathways and pitfalls. SpaceX could be the beneficiary of a new NASA contract and billions in federal funds for a rapid Mars exploration effort. That could take time to work its way through the congressional appropriations process, which won’t begin in earnest until the incoming administration releases its budget request for FY 2026 sometime next Spring. Reducing the regulatory oversight of SpaceX is a more rapid (and free) option. Recently, SpaceX claimed the regulatory burdens to secure launch licenses for Starship unnecessarily slowed the pace of the program, a complaint echoed by a number of Republican members of Congress. Under Trump, the FAA will likely become a more supportive partner.

Many experts (myself included) believe that a 2028 timeline for human landings is impossible given the range of technical challenges remaining to be solved; even so, we’d see real progress in sending humans to Mars at a rate unprecedented in human history.

Musk could also target large NASA programs for cancellation via the Department of Government Efficiency commission. The Space Launch System, Gateway, Orion, and Mars Sample Return could all easily be targeted, regardless of the enormous conflicts of interest Musk has when proposing to cancel programs that essentially compete with SpaceX projects. The reality of canceling those programs, many of which have enjoyed rock-solid support from Congress over the past decade, will be no easy task, and it is unclear that the Trump Administration would want to pick a fight with members of its own party, particularly given the narrow advantage Republicans hold in both congressional chambers. This is an area to watch closely.

There is always the possibility that Musk could have a falling out with Trump, a fate familiar to many of the President’s advisors over the years. Both men are accustomed to being the primary decision-makers and center of attention in their respective arenas. Musk is not an elected official; his influence is a function of Trump’s embrace. If this happens, and if it occurs early enough in Trump’s next presidency, the grand policy pronouncements of Elon Musk could amount to nothing at all. 

The Vance factor

J.D. Vance, as Vice President, will assume the chairmanship of the National Space Council, assuming Trump deigns to keep it. Unlike Mike Pence, a noted space supporter with a personal passion for the subject, Vance shows no public proclivity for space. Much of the effectiveness of the Space Council is a function of the Vice President’s commitment to the effort and of their relationship with the President himself, which provides the necessary influence to make effective policy in the executive branch. Absent this high-level attention, the Space Council could be less effective and even sidelined by Elon Musk.



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