Solar activity increased again on January 17, with 5 M-class solar flares from 02:11 UTC to 13:35 UTC when the strongest in the series erupted — M7.4 from Active Region 3964.
There were no radio signatures indicating that a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced during this event.
The region currently has a Beta magnetic configuration, meaning it is capable of generating further strong eruptions. However, as it continues to rotate toward the west limb, the likelihood of Earth-directed solar flares decreases with each passing day.
Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over South America, South Atlantic Ocean, and parts of Africa at the time of the flare.
Solar activity is expected to be at minor to moderate levels, with a 55% chance of M-class solar flares and 15% for X-class through January 19.
Solar wind environment over the past 24 hours reflected influence of a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from 480 to around 450 km/s before an increase to about 525 km/s around 07:00 UTC today.
The forecast calls for continued enhanced solar wind conditions through January 19.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels over the past 24 hours. Periods of active conditions are expected on January 17 and 18, followed by quiet to unsettled conditions on January 19, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 12:30 UTC on January 17, 2025