A Type II Radio Emission with an estimated velocity of 673 km/s was associated with the flare event, suggesting a coronal mass ejection (CME) was associated with the event.
A 10cm Radio Burst (TenFlare) lasting 14 minutes and with a peak flux of 280 sfu. This indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over South America, the South Atlantic Ocean, and parts of Africa.
There might be an Earth-directed component with this CME, however, an updated coronagraph imagery is needed to confirm. The responsible region (AR3978) is now moving toward the center of the solar disk, making Earth-directed CMEs possible in the days ahead.
Other notable activity over the past 24 hours include an M1.0 solar flare at 06:10 UTC from Region 3976 and a solar filament eruption between 13:00 and 15:00 UTC on January 30, approximately 18° in length, and centered near S35E30 — with possible glancing blow from the periphery of the CME over February 2.
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate levels from January 31 to February 2, primarily due to an active region cluster in the northeastern quadrant.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels over the past 24 hours, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The 2 MeV electron flux at geostationary orbit is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on January 31.
However, a coronal hole high-speed stream is expected to arrive between late January 31 and early February 1, increasing the chance of high electron flux levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels through February 2.
Minor enhancements were observed in the interplanetary magnetic field. After approximately 15:00 UTC on January 30, total field strength increased from around 6 nT to a peak near 16 nT. The Bz component reached -12 nT but was primarily oriented northward. Solar wind speed remained slow, ranging between 280 – 365 km/s. The phi angle was mostly positive with some variability between 00:00 – 06:00 UTC on January 31.
Weak enhancements in solar wind parameters associated with the January 28 CME are likely to persist through early January 31. Additional enhancements are expected with the anticipated onset of the positive polarity coronal hole later in the period, lasting through February 1 – 2.
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels over the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic conditions may reach G1 – Minor storm levels due to the anticipated influence of the January 28 CME. Following CME influence, a positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream is expected to become geoeffective.
G1 conditions are likely to persist through February 1, with active conditions continuing on February 2 as coronal hole influence wanes.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 12:30 UTC on January 31, 2025