There were no radio signatures that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced during this event. Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over SE Asia and Australia at the time of the flare.
Region 3981 is moving toward the center of the solar disk, increasing the likelihood of Earth-directed solar flares in the coming days.
This event follows multiple M-class solar flares since the end of January, with the strongest being M6.7 on January 31, and M5.1 and M4.1 on February 2. It was followed by M1.0 from the same region at 04:32 UTC today, M3.1 at 05:47 UTC, M2.5 at 07:44, and M1.4 at 09:13 UTC.
The NOAA forecast calls for a 60% chance of M- and 15% of X-class solar flares through February 5.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC on February 3, peaking at 1 653 pfu at 15:50 UTC on February 2. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels during the same period.
The 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain elevated through February 4 as the positive polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS) influence persists, though gradually diminishing. There is a slight chance for greater than 10 MeV proton levels to reach S1 – Minor storm levels between February 3 and 5.
The solar wind environment continued under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS in 24 hours to 00:30 UTC today. The total magnetic field strength averaged near 5 nT before increasing slightly to peak at 11 nT at 17:35 UTC on February 2. The Bz component varied between +/-6 nT until around 16:00 UTC when it rotated mostly north.
Solar wind speeds, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, began just under 700 km/s and gradually declined to just over 500 km/s by the end of the period. The phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector until around 16:00 UTC, when it shifted to a negative orientation.
Enhancements in solar wind parameters are expected to continue through February 3 and 4 due to the persistent yet weakening positive polarity CH HSS influence, along with the possible interaction of the January 31 CME on February 4. By February 5, solar wind parameters are expected to return to near-background levels as CH HSS and CME influences subside.
The geomagnetic field remained at quiet to active levels due to the ongoing influence of the positive polarity CH HSS.
Active geomagnetic conditions are likely early on February 3, with a slight chance of isolated G1 – Minor storm conditions as the CH HSS influence continues.
Further active conditions may develop late on February 4 if the January 31 CME interacts with Earth’s magnetosphere. A return to quiet to unsettled conditions is expected by February 5 as CH HSS and CME influences diminish.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 00:30 UTC on February 3, 2025