A 10 cm Radio Burst (tenflare) with a peak flux of 8 100 sfu and lasting 1 minute was associated with the M7.6 flare event. A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background.
This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.
There were no radio signatures that would suggest a coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced. Updated chronograph imagery shows a northward CME which doesn’t appear to be related to this flare.
Radio frequencies were forecast to be most degraded over Africa at the time of the flare.
Active Region 3981 remains the primary source of flaring activity today. The region continues to exhibit a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration, maintaining the potential for further moderate to strong flare activity.
Meanwhile, Region 3977 has developed a new delta configuration in its northernmost area, which could contribute to additional flare production. Region 3987, a newly numbered sunspot, has rotated onto the eastern limb, but its activity remains low at this time.
Solar activity is expected to persist at moderate levels, with an 85% chance of M-class and a potential (5%) for isolated X-class flares through February 8. Given the complexity of the sunspot regions, particularly in the northwestern quadrant, further significant flares cannot be ruled out.
With Region 3981 still exiting the Earth strike zone, Earth-directed CMEs may still be possible today or tomorrow.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has remained at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remains at background levels in 24 hours to 12:30 UTC today. However, with the presence of magnetically complex regions approaching the western limb, there is a possibility of elevated proton levels reaching S1 – Minor storm levels through February 8.
Solar wind parameters have been slightly elevated over the past 24 hours, with total field measurements ranging from 4 to 11 nT and the Bz component fluctuating between +/-8 nT. Solar wind speed has been observed in the range of approximately 375 to 475 km/s, with the phi angle predominantly in the positive sector.
A minor enhancement in solar wind conditions is expected on February 6, followed by a more pronounced increase on February 7 due to a glancing blow from the CME that erupted on February 2. Elevated conditions are expected to subside by February 8.
Geomagnetic activity has been mostly quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours. A similar pattern is expected to continue through February 6. On February 7, conditions are likely to reach unsettled to active levels with the anticipated arrival of the February 2 CME.
By February 8, geomagnetic activity should return to quiet to unsettled levels as solar wind influences wane.
References:
1 Forecast Discussion – NOAA/SWPC – Issued at 12:30 UTC on February 6, 2025